Are We Headed for Civil War? - David Betz

Understanding Insurgency Beyond the Stereotypes

Betz begins by challenging common perceptions of insurgency, which many associate with violent extremism such as suicide bombings in foreign conflict zones. He explains that insurgency is fundamentally a social movement, often hidden beneath the surface like the bulk of an iceberg. While the violent acts grab headlines, the larger and more significant part of insurgency lies in the underlying social and political grievances that fuel it. Insurgency differs from normal social movements primarily in that it involves going beyond the law to achieve political aims, which can range from sabotage and rioting to targeted violence.

In Western democracies, Betz argues, the conditions that typically give rise to insurgency abroad—such as a loss of political legitimacy and a breakdown in the social contract—are increasingly visible at home. The growing alienation from politics, the perception that the political system no longer functions effectively to solve collective problems, and the erosion of a shared national identity all contribute to this dynamic. Politics, he reminds listeners, is meant to solve collective action problems through a legitimate process that commands broad acceptance, even among those who disagree with specific outcomes. When that legitimacy is lost, the political system risks collapse into conflict.

Civil War: Definitions and Contemporary Relevance

The term “civil war” often conjures images of large-scale, overt conflict like the American Civil War, but Betz uses it in a broader academic sense to describe internal conflict between groups within the same sovereign state. He prefers this term over others like revolution or rebellion because civil wars tend to be prolonged, complex, and rooted in deep social fractures rather than short, explosive events.

Betz stresses that the UK and other Western countries are approaching conditions that make civil war a realistic possibility, even if the form it takes may differ from historical examples. The key is recognizing the long-term buildup of tensions and the fragility of the political order, rather than focusing solely on dramatic violent incidents.

Multiculturalism and the Erosion of Pre-Political Loyalty

One of the most significant factors Betz identifies in the current crisis is multiculturalism, which he defines as the coexistence of multiple cultures, religions, and social mores within a single society. He distinguishes between a multiethnic society, where diverse groups integrate into a shared national culture, and a multicultural society, where groups maintain separate identities without a unifying national culture. Betz argues that the latter undermines the essential “pre-political loyalty” that binds citizens to the nation-state and legitimizes the political system.

This erosion of a shared identity leads to a loss of legitimacy and fuels fears among the formerly dominant majority—often the indigenous or native population—that they are losing their cultural and political status. This perceived “downgrading” or displacement is a powerful driver of social unrest and insurgency. Betz points out that this dynamic is not confined to far-right groups but is widespread across political spectrums and regions.

He further explains a paradox in civil war theory: both highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies tend to be more stable, while societies with a dominant majority feeling threatened by demographic and cultural change are most vulnerable to conflict. This situation, he suggests, is precisely where the UK and much of Western Europe find themselves today.

Factionalism, Polarization, and Loss of Faith in Institutions

Betz highlights factionalism as another corrosive factor undermining political stability. Factionalism occurs when political actors prioritize their group’s interests over the national interest, fracturing the sense of a unified polity. The most dangerous form, “polar factionalism,” involves rigid tribal loyalty where individuals adopt the consensus views of their faction regardless of personal conscience, driven by insecurity and fear.

This polarization is exacerbated by a profound loss of faith in political institutions and leaders. Trust in government, parliaments, and other institutions has plummeted to historic lows across the West, including the UK. Legitimacy, which Betz describes as the “secret sauce” that makes governance effective and reduces the need for coercion, is rapidly eroding. Without legitimacy, governments must rely increasingly on muscular policing and legal restrictions, which further alienate citizens and deepen divisions.

The Role of Social Media and Urban Vulnerability

Social media plays a critical role in amplifying factionalism and insurgent movements by enabling like-minded extremists to find each other and create echo chambers. It facilitates the mobilization of passive supporters, active propagandists, and even adherents willing to break laws or engage in violence. This technological factor accelerates the fracturing of society and the spread of radical narratives.

Betz also discusses the vulnerability of modern cities, which depend heavily on complex infrastructure and supply chains. Cities are likened to “occupied territories” by some insurgent groups, and their dependence on resources from surrounding regions makes them susceptible to “system disruption” tactics. Attacks on infrastructure could cascade into widespread chaos, reminiscent of the 2011 London riots but on a much larger scale, overwhelming law enforcement and destabilizing society.

Potential Sparks and the Unpredictability of Conflict

While the tinder of social and political grievances is well established, Betz emphasizes that the spark igniting civil conflict is inherently unpredictable. He draws parallels to the Arab Spring, where a single act of self-immolation by a fruit seller triggered widespread uprisings. In the UK context, horrific violent incidents or a steady stream of revelations from inquiries into social scandals could serve as sparks.

He warns that the first major violent acts may come from previously unknown groups acting covertly, possibly targeting high-profile figures such as judges or influencers. The government’s focus on online behavior may leave it blind to offline preparations. The growing belligerence and willingness to fight across political divides suggest that the potential for rapid escalation is real.

Elite Fragmentation and the Limits of Political Reform

Betz critiques the current political elite as neither unified nor competent, with defections and new political movements signaling deep fractures. This fragmentation weakens traditional bulwarks against civil war, such as a cohesive ruling class and effective governance.

The discussion touches on the rise of populist and reformist parties like Reform UK and figures like Nigel Farage and Donald Trump. While these movements channel some of the public’s frustrations, Betz is skeptical about their ability to deliver meaningful change quickly enough to satisfy the urgent demands of the population. He warns of the “peril of the reformer,” where acknowledging systemic problems raises expectations that cannot be met, potentially accelerating instability.

A Call for Reflection on the Future

Despite the grim analysis, Betz concludes with a call for society to engage in serious reflection about the kind of country it wants to become after the anticipated period of turmoil. He stresses that while the coming conflict may be painful and prolonged, it will not last forever. Thoughtful consideration of the post-conflict future is essential to avoid descending into chaos and to build a more stable and unified society.