Lee Cronin: Controversial Nature Paper on Evolution of Life and Universe | Lex Fridman Podcast #404

Added: Dec 11, 2023

Assembly theory proposes that the complexity of an object can be quantified by the number of steps it took to create it and the process by which it was built. The assembly index is the minimum number of steps required to assemble an object from its elementary building blocks. This concept can be applied to molecules, language, and mathematical theorems, allowing for the measurement of complexity in various systems.

The assembly equation presented in the paper quantifies the amount of selection necessary to produce an ensemble of observed objects. It includes variables such as the assembly index, copy number, and normalization terms. The copy number is an important addition to the equation, as it indicates the presence of identical copies of a molecule, which implies structure and non-randomness.

Selection, in the context of assembly theory, refers to the ability of an object to persist in an environment and continually be created and destroyed by processes. Evolution, in this sense, involves the turnover of objects over time and the ability to survive in various environments. The concept of a "factory" in assembly theory refers to the environment that facilitates the selection and evolution of objects.

Cronin discusses the potential applications of assembly theory, including its use in identifying alien life on other planets. He suggests that by using mass spectrometry with high resolution, it may be possible to detect complex molecules that are indicative of life. The presence of molecules with high molecular weight and a high number of fragments could be a sign of advanced selection and evolution, which is characteristic of life as we know it.

The discussion also delves into the idea of selection and evolution in non-biological systems, such as inorganic molecules and technology. Cronin emphasizes the importance of robustness in biological evolution, which allows for the survival of organisms in various environments. He also highlights the potential for using the assembly equation to measure changes in the assembly index in experimental systems, such as petri dishes with bacterial cultures.

Cronin addresses criticisms of assembly theory, such as the idea that it is simply putting a new name on something that is already obvious. He explains that assembly theory provides a more precise and testable framework for measuring complexity, and that it offers a way to quantify the selection and evolution of complex systems in a mechanical and objective way.

Cronin also shares his experience of facing criticism and rejection in the academic world. He talks about his struggles with learning difficulties in school and how he overcame them to pursue his passion for science. He emphasizes the importance of perseverance and not giving up, as well as the value of constructive criticism in refining ideas and theories.

The conversation delves into the fundamental nature of time and free will, inspired by the work of Nick Gizen. Cronin discusses the concept of Earth being the largest place in the universe due to the complexity and diversity of life and evolution that has occurred on the planet. He acknowledges the possibility of life existing on other planets but highlights the unique and vast commentarial space associated with Earth's evolutionary history.

Cronin then delves into the concept of time, arguing that the universe is too big to contain itself and that this leads to the generation of novelty and creativity. He discusses the uncertainty principle in Newtonian mechanics and how it relates to the inability to specify initial conditions to infinite precision, leading to non-determinism in the future. He also challenges the idea of time as just a coordinate and asserts that time is fundamental, especially in the context of free will.

The conversation shifts to the topic of artificial intelligence and the concerns surrounding AI doomsday scenarios. Cronin expresses skepticism about the likelihood of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future and criticizes the fear-mongering surrounding AI. He argues that the probability of AGI is unknown due to the lack of a mechanism, and he questions the validity of the AI doomsday narrative. Cronin also emphasizes the importance of understanding the intention and agency of AI systems, as well as the unintended consequences of their actions.

Furthermore, Cronin addresses the potential for engineering deadly viruses or AI systems that could pose a threat to humanity. He dismisses the idea of creating a perfect virus or an AI system that could wipe out all life on Earth, citing the limitations of such endeavors and the resilience of natural systems. He also highlights the need for responsible regulation and ethical considerations in the development of AI technologies.

Cronin emphasizes the need for a rational and evidence-based approach to understanding complex scientific and technological concepts. He advocates for a balanced perspective on AI and encourages critical thinking when evaluating the potential risks and benefits of emerging technologies. Additionally, he underscores the importance of ethical considerations and responsible decision-making in the pursuit of scientific advancements.

Cronin continues by discussing his interest in creating a chemical brain, which he believes could lead to the development of conscious AI. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the mechanism of intelligence and the role of evolution in shaping human intelligence. He also expresses concern about the current lack of proper concern for the threat of nuclear weapons and the potential for a global conflict.

Friedman and Cronin then discuss the concept of novelty and the limitations of current AI systems in generating truly novel ideas. Cronin argues that human intelligence is able to mine the future for novelty, while AI systems are limited by their reliance on past data.

The conversation then turns to the topic of God and the role of selection as a creative force in the universe. Cronin expresses his atheism but acknowledges the existence of a creative force in the universe, which he attributes to the process of selection. He also discusses the concept of free will and the role of imagination in shaping the future.

Throughout the conversation, Cronin emphasizes the importance of mining novelty and generating new knowledge. He expresses his optimism about the future of humanity and the potential for AI to contribute to positive advancements. He also discusses the ethical implications of AI and the need for authenticated users and data.