The Untold Story of the Gaza Ceasefire - Thomas Small

The Doha Assassination Attempt

The narrative begins with a detailed account of Israel's audacious missile strike against top Hamas figures in Doha, Qatar, on September 9, 2024. This act drastically altered the regional and international political landscape. Using stealth jets and a carefully planned missile trajectory over the Red Sea that technically avoided Saudi airspace, Israel targeted a gathering of Hamas's political negotiators who were involved in peace talks mediated by Qatar. Although none of the top Hamas leaders were killed—having left to pray at a nearby mosque—the attack killed a Qatari security official and several other individuals, which sparked outrage throughout the Gulf states and among Western allies, especially the United States.

The attack was not communicated to the White House beforehand, leading to serious tensions and deep mistrust between Israel and its closest ally, America. The United States, which was caught off guard, condemned the strike, and relations were severely strained. Thomas emphasizes how this reckless operation not only threatened to destabilize the already fragile alliance systems in the region but may have also accelerated a pivot away from American dominance toward a more multipolar order with growing powers like China and India exerting influence.

In response, there was a rapid shift in Gulf cooperation frameworks, symbolized by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan's military agreement involving Pakistan extending a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia. This development underscored the Kingdom's fears about regional vulnerabilities, especially after Israeli military actions demonstrated the ability to cripple Iranian and potentially Saudi ballistic missile capabilities.

Qatar's Crucial Mediating Role

Despite the attack targeting its territory, Qatar emerged as a critical mediator that helped facilitate the ceasefire negotiations. Thomas describes Qatar as a unique hub in Middle Eastern politics, simultaneously playing multiple contradictory roles. It acts as a bridge allowing contact between diverse and often adversarial actors, from the Taliban to Iran to the United States, while also supporting politically charged media outlets like Al Jazeera, which disseminate often radical narratives. Qatar's economic clout, largely derived from its vast natural gas reserves, underpins its diplomatic influence, which, according to Thomas, was vital in this recent peace push.

Donald Trump's surprising public praise for Qatar and Turkey during peace deal announcements reflects an American administration keen to repair relations and stabilize the region after the Doha attack fallout. Trump commended the leadership of Qatar and Turkish President Erdogan, highlighting their bravery and crucial engagement in delivering the hostage release deal, underscoring the pragmatic recognition that these nations are indispensable actors in Middle Eastern diplomacy despite often being seen as problematic by traditional Western allies.

The Changing Geostrategic Landscape

The ceasefire and its broader peace initiative must be understood in the context of a rapidly transforming Middle East. Over the past several years, efforts such as the Abraham Accords promised a new era of economic integration linking Israel, the Gulf states, India, and Europe as a counterbalance to China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. Saudi Arabia, with its ambitious Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, appeared poised to join this regional economic realignment, contingent on some progress on the Palestinian issue.

However, Thomas explains how Hamas's October 7, 2023 attacks, seemingly in coordination with Iran and its proxy groups, severely disrupted these plans. The attack was aimed at scuttling emerging peace and integration efforts by provoking a new war with dire humanitarian consequences. In response, Israel expanded its operations beyond Gaza, targeting Iran's ballistic missile capacities and other hostile actors, further militarizing regional rivalries.

This deeply complex web of confrontation and rapprochement has created a fraught atmosphere where Gulf countries acknowledge Israel's military effectiveness against Iran and its proxies but are simultaneously alienated by Israel's aggressive policies and unilateral actions that destabilize the Gulf's delicate balance. The Doha attack encapsulated this paradox, gravely shaking trust and pushing Gulf states to reconsider their security options, including nuclear deterrence arrangements with Pakistan — a move signaling diminishing confidence in US security guarantees.

Challenges of Disarming Hamas

A central theme throughout the discussion is the monumental difficulty of resolving the Gaza situation without dismantling Hamas, a group Thomas clearly identifies as radical, entrenched, and disconnected from pragmatic politics. He notes that Hamas survived an extensive military campaign by Israel, which severely degraded its military infrastructure but never fully eradicated its capabilities. Furthermore, Hamas remains dominant within Gaza, reasserting control by eliminating rival militias and collaborators, which complicates any effort to establish a stable, alternative Palestinian governance.

Thomas stresses that while everyone agrees Hamas must be removed for genuine peace and economic progress to occur, there is little consensus or clear strategy on how to achieve this. Previous attempts—including armed resistance from Palestinian factions supported by Israel and the US—have failed, often simply strengthening Hamas politically and militarily. Proposals under the ceasefire plan hint at offering amnesty to Hamas members who renounce violence, but it remains uncertain whether such offers will be accepted, especially given Hamas's leadership's radical ideology and financial interests.

Despite the grim outlook, Thomas conveys a cautious optimism that Gulf money, combined with American, Egyptian, and Turkish diplomatic pressure, could encourage the emergence of a technocratic governance structure in Gaza into which moderate Palestinians could step. The idea of international oversight, involving figures such as Tony Blair, is floated as a possible albeit controversial mechanism to supervise Gaza's transitional administration. Yet he acknowledges that the fundamental challenge remains the radicalized mindset among Palestinians shaped over decades of conflict, particularly the younger generation's deep mistrust of Israel and Hamas alike.

Broader Regional and Global Implications

Thomas also touches on the broader Middle Eastern and global context. The evolving alliances, such as Saudi Arabia's cautious rapprochement with Israel and the tensions with Iran, mark a realignment that transcends the immediate hostilities. He points out that while some Arab states detest Hamas and Islamist radicalism more than Israel itself, turning this sentiment into a practical political solution is enormously complicated.

He notes the uncertainty surrounding Iran's future role, observing that although the regime has been weakened militarily, it remains ideologically committed to its regional ambitions. The Biden administration's strained relations with Gulf states and the gradual erosion of US influence in the region have prompted local powers to hedge their bets by seeking new alignments and military capabilities, further complicating the US's traditional role as security guarantor.

Meanwhile, Thomas reflects on internal Israeli politics, suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite decades in office and many military victories, may have weakened Israel's strategic position through missteps such as the Doha attack and failing to properly anticipate Saudi Arabia's nuclear arrangements. He argues that Israel now needs to become more self-sufficient and pursue new regional friendships to survive a future where American support might grow less reliable.

The Role of Activism

The episode briefly discusses the surge in pro-Palestinian activism around the world, particularly in places like the UK, where mass demonstrations continue. Thomas explains that these movements focus heavily on ending Israeli occupation in the West Bank, a goal that remains unresolved despite the Gaza ceasefire. He notes the ideological extremes within these activism communities but highlights that most seek a two-state solution and view the conflict through the lens of decades of occupation and displacement.

Looking ahead, Thomas expresses skepticism about the lasting viability of Israel on the global diplomatic stage, given declining support among younger generations and the ongoing polarization of opinions worldwide. He suggests that Israelis themselves often grapple with the heavy burden of their country's existential dilemmas, yearning for new leadership that might chart a more sustainable course.

Final Reflections

Closing the conversation, Thomas acknowledges the immense complexity of the Middle East conflict, abstaining from moralizing and stressing the need to resist simplistic narratives. He recognizes the slow but ongoing transformation in the region, propelled by economic ambitions, shifting alliances, and evolving political realities. Ultimately, he suggests that demilitarizing Gaza and resolving Palestinian statehood are essential prerequisites for peace but warns that achieving these goals requires negotiating with hard realities and entrenched radical ideologies.