SYRIA FALLS

Added: Dec 9, 2024

The Fall of the Assad Regime

On a recent Sunday morning, Syrian rebels successfully captured Damascus and Bashar al-Assad's palace, forcing the dictator to flee to Moscow, where he has reportedly been granted asylum. This swift and unexpected campaign has ended a civil war that has raged since 2011, resulting in the displacement of millions and a humanitarian crisis that has reverberated across Europe and the Middle East. Shapiro emphasizes that the Assad regime, characterized by its brutal authoritarianism and mass human rights abuses, was propped up by foreign powers, particularly Russia and Iran. However, the recent military setbacks for these allies, particularly in Ukraine and against Israeli forces, have left Assad vulnerable.

The Geopolitical Landscape

To understand the current situation in Syria, one must consider the complex web of regional interests. Syria's geographical position, bordered by Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey, has made it a focal point for various powers. The Assad regime, a secular Ba'athist government, was supported by Iran, which sought to establish a Shia Crescent stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Conversely, Turkey, under President Erdogan, has backed various rebel factions, including the radical Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which has emerged as a significant player following the regime's collapse.

Shapiro notes that the Syrian conflict is emblematic of the broader instability in the Middle East, a region shaped by arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers after World War I. The artificial nature of these borders has led to ongoing ethnic and sectarian strife, making the region unworkable and prone to conflict.

The Timeline of the Civil War

The Syrian civil war began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring, with peaceful protests against Assad's regime quickly escalating into a violent conflict. The U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions on Assad, while Iran and Russia increased their support for the regime. By 2013, the conflict had devolved into a struggle dominated by radical Sunni Islamist groups, including ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates. The U.S. response included airstrikes against ISIS, but the situation remained chaotic.

As the war progressed, various factions emerged, including the Kurds, who gained control of significant territory in northeastern Syria. The Kurds, seen as the most pro-Western group, have been crucial in the fight against ISIS but now face the threat of Turkish aggression. The Assad regime, meanwhile, managed to regain some territory with Russian support, but its hold on power was increasingly tenuous.

The Role of Foreign Powers

Shapiro highlights the critical role of foreign powers in the Syrian conflict. Russia's involvement was primarily motivated by its desire to secure a foothold in the Mediterranean, while Iran sought to expand its influence through proxy groups. Turkey's support for rebel factions was driven by its opposition to the Assad regime and its desire to counter Kurdish autonomy.

The recent collapse of the Assad regime can be attributed to the weakening of these foreign supports. Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, has been unable to provide the necessary backing for Assad. Simultaneously, Iran's resources have been stretched thin due to its involvement in multiple conflicts across the region. As a result, the rebels, particularly Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, seized the opportunity to advance and ultimately topple the regime.

The Aftermath and Future Implications

With the fall of Assad, the future of Syria remains uncertain. Shapiro warns that while the Assad regime was a brutal dictatorship, the groups that have taken its place, particularly Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, are also radical Islamist factions with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS. The potential for further chaos and violence looms large, as these groups may not provide the stability that many hope for.

The geopolitical ramifications extend beyond Syria. Israel, which has been actively engaged in military operations against Iranian proxies in the region, now faces a new set of challenges with the rise of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. The Israeli government has expressed concern over the potential for these radical groups to threaten its borders. Meanwhile, Turkey is likely to increase its military presence in northern Syria, further complicating the situation.

Shapiro emphasizes that the U.S. should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on supporting its allies, such as the Kurds, while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict. The Biden administration's previous attempts to negotiate with Iran and its slow response to the crisis have drawn criticism, highlighting the need for a more robust and coherent strategy in the region.