I Can't Believe These 2026 Polls...

Democrats' Surge in 2026 Congressional Polls

Shapiro opens by addressing the troubling news for Republicans: Democrats currently enjoy a 14-point lead on the generic congressional ballot according to the latest NPR-PBS News Marist poll, the widest advantage since 2017. Though the generic ballot is not a perfect indicator of who will win in specific districts, such a gap often signals potential trouble for the GOP. Historically, a generic ballot lead has sometimes, though not always, translated into significant seat gains—as seen in 2018 when Democrats picked up 40 House seats. However, Shapiro cautions that the current district map, shaped significantly by redistricting, has fewer swing districts and more securely held seats on both sides.

With detailed support from Perplexity's web browser "Comet," Shapiro breaks down House vulnerability, noting about 20 to 25 Republican-held districts are considered vulnerable. These competitive districts span several states including Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nebraska, and California. Notably, Democrats only need to net three seats to regain control of the House, so even a modest wave could prove decisive. Contrastingly, the Senate map is more challenging for Democrats; with Republicans defending 53 seats, Democrats would need at least two pickups to gain a majority. While seats in Maine and North Carolina are considered vulnerable, flip opportunities in traditionally red states like Texas, Iowa, and Alaska remain unlikely but not impossible, especially if an active Democratic wave materializes.

Why Is President Trump Struggling in the Polls?

A significant portion of Shapiro's analysis focuses on President Trump's dismal approval rating, which currently rests at about 39%, tied for his lowest since right after January 6. Shapiro argues that much of the conventional wisdom about why Trump is lagging is mistaken. For instance, contrary to many critiques, Trump's foreign policy remains relatively popular among Americans. Approval on foreign policy issues has actually increased compared to his first term, hitting approximately 43%, which is notably high given the intensity of the media and internet criticism he faces.

Similarly, immigration, often cited as a drag on his numbers, is more nuanced. Trump effectively halted the southern border crisis, which was a significant problem for the Biden administration. Now, Americans focus more on deporting immigrants already in the country, which is less popular, but this issue does not largely tank his overall numbers. Instead, Shapiro points to economic issues and controversies surrounding the Epstein files as the primary factors weighing on Trump's approval. Economic concerns, especially regarding cost of living and inflation, disproportionately impact presidential ratings, regardless of party.

Epstein Files and Political Weaponization

The Epstein scandal is another major headache for Trump. While the president has signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act into law, promising at least some semblance of transparency, the issue has been fiercely politicized. Democrats have weaponized Epstein disclosures to attack Trump and his allies, despite Trump's relatively consistent transparency compared to the Biden administration. Shapiro highlights internal GOP tensions, with figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene using Epstein files to criticize Trump's foreign policy, reflecting fractures within the MAGA coalition.

Moreover, some Democrats have engaged in dubious accusations, such as conflating a completely unrelated individual named Jeffrey Epstein with the convicted sex trafficker to smear Republican officials. This chaotic and often ethically questionable behavior in Congress, including censure fights involving Republicans like Cory Mills and Democrats like Stacy Plask, reflects poorly on the institution and may contribute to voter disillusionment.

Congressional Dysfunction and Candidate Quality

Shapiro stresses that poor Republican polling is compounded by the quality of some GOP candidates in vulnerable districts. In Florida's 7th district, Representative Cory Mills faces allegations ranging from financial misconduct and stolen valor to abuse accusations. Democrats are already eyeing his seat as a potential pickup. Worse, another Florida representative, Sheila Sherfilis McCormack, is now facing federal charges for allegedly stealing and laundering FEMA funds to finance her congressional campaign. These scandals further damage Republican credibility and electoral prospects, underscoring the importance of recruitment and candidate vetting if the GOP hopes to hold onto critical seats.

Economic Developments and Affordability Challenges

Turning to the economy, Shapiro outlines a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture. The recently released September jobs report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, although the unemployment rate ticked up due to increased labor force participation. Stock markets have responded positively, buoyed by outstanding earnings reports from companies such as Nvidia, whose record revenue and growth highlight the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence technology.

However, at the consumer level, the story is less rosy. Retail giant Target continues to struggle with declining sales, reduced foot traffic, and shifting spending habits, signaling that not all sectors of the economy are thriving. Inflation remains an anchor around the president's neck, especially regarding the cost of groceries and basic staples, which still linger well above pre-pandemic levels. Shapiro reminds listeners that while inflation rates have decreased from their peaks, overall prices have not returned to 2020 levels, limiting consumer relief.

Addressing affordability more broadly, Shapiro emphasizes the basic economic principle that price reductions require either increased supply or decreased demand. He advocates for policy measures including deportation of undocumented immigrants who strain resources and expansion of skilled immigration, which remains controversial on some parts of the right. Skilled foreign labor, Shapiro argues, is essential to staffing advanced factories and maintaining domestic manufacturing, thereby preventing outsourcing and spurring wage growth. President Trump's recent remarks at the US-Saudi investment forum echo this practical approach to immigration policy, balancing MAGA spirit with economic pragmatism.

Housing Market Challenges

The podcast also reflects on rent control and housing policies, particularly in New York City, where strict rent stabilization has led to thousands of "ghost apartments"—vacant units due to landlords' inability to cover maintenance costs under price caps. Incoming Mayor Zoran Mamani's promise to freeze rent further may exacerbate availability problems and affordability, illustrating how well-intentioned regulations can produce unintended effects that worsen housing crises.

Justice Department Issues and Media Ethics

The administration's legal challenges are not just external. A notable stumble involves the prosecution of former FBI Director James Comey, with procedural irregularities threatening to derail the case due to grand jury mishandling. Meanwhile, within media circles, Shapiro exposes questionable journalistic conduct exemplified by reporter Olivia Nuzi, whose personal entanglements with political figures raise serious ethical questions and undermine confidence in news coverage.

Looking Ahead: What Needs to Change?

In summary, Shapiro underscores that Republicans' path forward will require addressing economic concerns more effectively, improving candidate quality, and navigating internal party divisions over policy and loyalty. The administration's ability to respond to affordability struggles, manage contentious issues like immigration pragmatically, and restore public confidence in governance will determine whether they can stem the 2026 Democratic wave forecast in early polls. The episode closes with reflections on the enduring complexity of American politics and governance amid persistent scandals, economic uncertainty, and shifting voter sentiments.