Jeffrey Wasserstrom: China, Xi Jinping, Trade War, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mao | Lex Fridman Podcast #466

Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong

Wasserstrom begins by drawing parallels between Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People's Republic of China. Both leaders have been the subjects of intense personality cults, with Mao's cult of personality being particularly pronounced during his rule from 1949 to 1976. After Mao's death, there was a concerted effort to diminish the prominence of such cults within the Communist Party, leading to a period where the faces of leaders were not ubiquitous in public life. However, Xi Jinping has revived this trend, with his image and writings prominently displayed throughout China, marking a return to the Maoist style of leadership.

Despite these similarities, Wasserstrom highlights key differences between the two leaders. Mao thrived on chaos and disorder, often encouraging class struggle and public demonstrations. In contrast, Xi Jinping is characterized by a desire for stability and order, preferring to control public sentiment and limit unrest. This difference in approach reflects broader ideological shifts within the Communist Party, with Xi Jinping embracing elements of Confucianism that emphasize hierarchy and social order, while Mao rejected such traditions as feudal remnants.

The Role of Confucianism

Wasserstrom emphasizes the importance of Confucianism in understanding contemporary Chinese politics. Confucian ideals, which advocate for stable hierarchies and mutual obligations within relationships, have been reintroduced into the political discourse under Xi Jinping. This revival contrasts sharply with Mao's disdain for Confucianism, which he viewed as a hindrance to progress. Xi's embrace of Confucian values serves to legitimize his authority and reinforce the notion of a harmonious society, where the state plays a central role in maintaining order.

The resurgence of Confucianism also reflects a broader cultural shift in China, as the government seeks to promote a sense of national identity rooted in historical traditions. This cultural revival is not without its contradictions, as it coexists with the Communist Party's Marxist foundations. Wasserstrom notes that this blending of ideologies creates a unique political landscape in which Xi Jinping can draw upon both Confucian and communist principles to justify his rule.

Understanding Modern China

To comprehend the complexities of modern China, Wasserstrom argues that it is essential to study its past. He points out that the historical context of Confucianism and the legacy of Mao Zedong shape the current political climate. The Chinese government has been adept at using historical narratives to foster a sense of national pride and unity, often framing contemporary challenges as a continuation of historical struggles against foreign aggression and internal chaos.

Wasserstrom also highlights the significance of education in Chinese society, rooted in Confucian ideals. The belief that individuals can be molded through education fosters a meritocratic ethos, where hard work and learning are seen as pathways to success. However, this meritocratic framework is complicated by systemic inequalities, as access to quality education and resources often depends on one's social and economic background. This tension between meritocracy and inequality is a recurring theme in discussions about China's future.

The Trade War

The conversation shifts to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, which has significant implications for both nations and the global economy. Wasserstrom explains that the trade war is not merely an economic conflict but also a cultural and ideological standoff. Xi Jinping's rhetoric emphasizes China's role as a responsible superpower, promoting multilateralism and opposing unilateral bullying from the United States. This narrative is designed to bolster national pride and reinforce the legitimacy of the Communist Party's rule.

Wasserstrom notes that the trade war has created a complex dynamic, where both countries are forced to navigate their economic interdependence while also asserting their national interests. The tariffs imposed by both sides have led to increased tensions, and the potential for escalation remains a concern. As the two nations grapple with their differences, the question of who will ultimately blink first looms large, with both sides weighing the costs and benefits of continued confrontation.

Taiwan's Future

Taiwan emerges as a critical topic in the discussion, with Wasserstrom highlighting the island's unique position in the geopolitical landscape. He explains that Taiwan's identity has evolved over the years, with younger generations increasingly asserting their distinctiveness from mainland China. The events in Hong Kong have further fueled this sentiment, as many Taiwanese view the erosion of freedoms in Hong Kong as a cautionary tale for their own future.

Wasserstrom emphasizes that the Chinese Communist Party's approach to Taiwan is shaped by a desire for reunification, but the methods for achieving this goal remain uncertain. While Xi Jinping may seek to assert control over Taiwan, the potential for military conflict raises significant concerns. The historical context of Taiwan's relationship with China complicates the situation, as the island has its own democratic governance and a strong sense of national identity.

The Impact of Hong Kong

The situation in Hong Kong serves as a poignant example of the challenges facing China today. Wasserstrom discusses the 2019 protests, which were sparked by a proposed extradition bill that many viewed as a threat to the city's autonomy. The protests quickly escalated into a broader movement advocating for democratic rights and freedoms, drawing attention to the growing discontent with Beijing's encroachment on Hong Kong's way of life.

Wasserstrom notes that the Chinese government's response to the protests has been marked by increasing repression, culminating in the imposition of a national security law that effectively dismantled the freedoms previously enjoyed by Hong Kong residents. This crackdown has not only stifled dissent but has also raised concerns about the future of civil liberties in the region. The lessons learned from Hong Kong's experience resonate in Taiwan, where citizens are acutely aware of the potential consequences of closer ties with the mainland.

The Legacy of Mao Zedong

Mao Zedong's legacy continues to shape contemporary Chinese politics, with Wasserstrom exploring how the Communist Party navigates its complicated relationship with its founding figure. While Mao is often celebrated for his role in establishing the People's Republic of China, his policies, particularly the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, resulted in immense suffering and loss of life. The party has historically sought to balance Mao's contributions with the acknowledgment of his failures, leading to a nuanced portrayal of his legacy.

Wasserstrom highlights that Xi Jinping's approach to Mao is characterized by a desire to reclaim the revolutionary spirit associated with the leader while distancing himself from the chaos and violence of Mao's era. This balancing act reflects the party's ongoing struggle to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese populace, as it grapples with the complexities of its historical narrative.

The Future of China

As the conversation draws to a close, Wasserstrom reflects on the future of China and the potential for change within the country. He emphasizes that while the current political climate may seem repressive, history has shown that social movements can emerge unexpectedly and lead to significant transformations. The resilience of the Chinese people, coupled with their desire for a better future, suggests that the potential for change remains alive.

Wasserstrom concludes by expressing hope for a future where diverse voices and perspectives can flourish within China. He envisions a society that embraces its rich cultural heritage while also allowing for the free exchange of ideas and the pursuit of social justice.