Joe Rogan Experience #2174 - Annie Jacobsen

Added: Jul 11, 2024

The History of Nuclear Weapons

The conversation touches on the history of nuclear weapons, noting that it's remarkable no nukes have been used since 1945. However, Jacobsen points out that 80 years is a tiny blip in human history. She explains the nuclear triad - land-based missile silos, nuclear submarines, and nuclear-capable bombers. Currently, the US has 1,770 nuclear weapons on ready-to-launch status, some of which can be fired within 60 seconds.

Jacobsen and Rogan discuss past close calls with nuclear war, including a 1983 incident where a Soviet officer named Petrov chose not to report what appeared to be incoming US missiles, likely preventing nuclear war. They also talk about current tensions, with Russian President Putin recently threatening to potentially use weapons of mass destruction.

Technology and Information

The conversation shifts to discussing rapid technological change and its impacts. Jacobsen notes how quickly nuclear weapons technology advanced in the 1950s and 60s, going from 70,000 nuclear weapons in 1986 to about 12,500 today. They discuss the development of hypersonic missiles and debate whether missile defense systems could effectively stop a large-scale nuclear attack (Jacobsen argues they likely could not).

Rogan and Jacobsen explore how access to information has changed, from the advent of the printing press to today's internet and social media landscape. They discuss the pros and cons of this information revolution - while it allows for more informed citizens, it also enables the spread of misinformation. Jacobsen emphasizes the importance of an "alert and knowledgeable citizenry" in addressing existential threats.

The two talk about government attempts to control information, referencing recent controversies around social media companies removing content at the urging of government agencies. Rogan expresses concern about censorship and argues for allowing open discourse, while Jacobsen notes the challenges of balancing free speech with combating deliberate misinformation campaigns.

Artificial Intelligence and the Future

A significant portion of the conversation focuses on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts. Rogan speculates that AI may eventually be able to govern society more fairly and effectively than humans, who are prone to corruption, greed, and other flaws. He suggests AI could potentially solve major global problems that humans have failed to address.

Jacobsen raises some concerns about AI development, particularly in the military sphere. She notes that much AI research is funded by DARPA and other defense agencies, potentially steering the technology toward warfare applications. They discuss the "dual-use" nature of many technologies - developments that have both civilian and military applications.

Rogan expresses both excitement and trepidation about AI's rapid advancement. He believes we're only a few years away from artificial general intelligence that will far surpass human cognitive abilities. While this could lead to tremendous breakthroughs, it also raises questions about humanity's future role and relevance.

Human Nature and Progress

The conversation frequently returns to contemplating human nature and our species' trajectory. Rogan and Jacobsen discuss how deeply ingrained traits like tribalism and aggression have shaped human history and continue to influence global politics. They wonder whether these innate tendencies can be overcome or if they'll always lead to conflict.

Jacobsen shares an anecdote about interviewing Satsuko Thurlow, a 92-year-old survivor of the Hiroshima bombing. Thurlow's lifelong dedication to nuclear disarmament illustrates how individuals can be motivated to work for positive change even in the face of immense tragedy.

Rogan speculates that humans may be in a transitional phase, likening our current state to a "biological caterpillar" that will eventually give birth to an "electronic butterfly" - a post-human intelligence. He wonders if the development of AI is part of an inevitable evolutionary process that we don't fully understand.

Despite the many challenges and risks discussed, both Rogan and Jacobsen express cautious optimism about humanity's long-term trajectory. They note that by many measures, the world is safer and people are better off today than in the past, even if progress is uneven and new threats emerge.

Scientific Breakthroughs and Mysteries

The podcast touches on various scientific topics and recent breakthroughs. Jacobsen mentions ongoing research into limb regeneration and regrowing human teeth, inspired by studying animals with these abilities. They discuss how many medical and technological innovations stem from military research before finding civilian applications.

Rogan brings up recent advancements in understanding animal intelligence, including evidence that some apes may be entering their own "Stone Age" by beginning to use tools. They speculate about the possibility of deciphering dolphin language and what we might learn about our evolutionary cousins.

The conversation also delves into some scientific mysteries, like the doubling of human brain size over two million years - a change Jacobsen notes is the biggest mystery in the fossil record. They discuss various theories about human evolution and cognition, including the development of language and symbolic thinking.

Personal Reflections and Societal Changes

Both Rogan and Jacobsen reflect on how much the world has changed just within their lifetimes. They reminisce about growing up without cell phones or the internet, contrasting that with today's hyper-connected reality. Rogan speculates that the changes we'll see in the coming decades may make our current level of connectivity seem primitive by comparison.

They discuss how these rapid changes affect society and individuals. Rogan shares that he sometimes experiences anxiety about how quickly the world can change, using historical examples like Hiroshima to illustrate how normal life can be suddenly and permanently altered by catastrophic events.

Jacobsen emphasizes the importance of staying informed and engaged with these issues, even when they seem overwhelming. She argues that understanding the risks we face is crucial for motivating action to address them.

The Role of Leadership and Governance

The conversation frequently touches on issues of political leadership and governance. Rogan expresses skepticism about the ability of current political systems to effectively address global challenges, arguing that many politicians are motivated more by ego and self-interest than genuine public service.

They discuss how access to classified information might change a leader's perspective, noting how many presidents seem to alter their stances on issues like nuclear policy after taking office. Jacobsen shares an anecdote about President Clinton hinting at government secrecy in his memoirs, illustrating the gap between public knowledge and insider information.

Rogan speculates that AI governance might eventually prove more effective than human leadership, given AI's potential to make decisions without being influenced by emotions, greed, or tribal loyalties. However, they also discuss the risks of AI being used by military powers to pursue aggressive goals without human moral constraints.

Media and Public Discourse

The podcast explores how media and public discourse shape our understanding of complex issues. Rogan criticizes mainstream media for often failing to cover important stories or perpetuating misinformation. They discuss the rise of alternative media sources, including podcasts, and how these platforms allow for more in-depth, nuanced conversations.

Jacobsen emphasizes the importance of making complex topics accessible to the general public. She describes her approach to writing, aiming to explain technical or classified information in ways that engage readers without talking down to them.

They also touch on how social media and internet culture influence public opinion and political movements. While acknowledging the potential for online misinformation and echo chambers, they also note how these platforms can bring attention to important issues and challenge official narratives.

Conclusion

The wide-ranging conversation between Joe Rogan and Annie Jacobsen covers numerous interconnected topics, from immediate existential threats like nuclear war to long-term questions about human evolution and the development of artificial intelligence. Throughout the discussion, they grapple with the tension between optimism about human progress and concern about the risks posed by our own technological creations.

Both emphasize the importance of public engagement with these complex issues, arguing that an informed and alert citizenry is crucial for navigating the challenges ahead. While acknowledging the many dangers and uncertainties facing humanity, they also express hope that our capacity for innovation and problem-solving may ultimately lead us toward a better future.