Christopher Caldwell: How Immigration Is Erasing Whites, Christians, and the Middle Class

Immigration and Its Impact on the UK

Caldwell begins by discussing the situation in the United Kingdom, a country he views as emblematic of larger Western anxieties. He describes how immigration to the UK has accelerated, especially since World War II, initially with waves from the Caribbean and the Indian subcontinent and more recently from outside Europe. Paradoxically, the government that campaigned for Brexit largely to curb immigration ended up overseeing an extraordinary influx of about 4.5 million immigrants between 2021 and 2024. This rapid and foreign-heavy migration, making up roughly 7% of the country's population in just three years, has profoundly destabilized British politics, contributing to polarization and fracture, especially on the right.

According to Caldwell, traditional notions of English identity — long rooted in a relatively homogeneous white Christian majority — are being tested. The population's demographic makeup is rapidly changing, with immigrant communities becoming a larger share of the population, especially in urban centers such as London, where he claims up to 70% of residents are non-British or non-English. This shift, he argues, signals a profound rupture from historical continuity that the UK had sustained for a millennium.

Immigration and Cultural Displacement

He frames this demographic transformation as a type of "invasion by invitation," where the leaders of the countries experiencing it have actively encouraged or permitted immigration for reasons ranging from economic pragmatism to moral or ideological commitments. Unlike historical migrations driven by conquest or displacement, this contemporary movement is facilitated by technology, transportation, and communications, making it unprecedented in scale and nature.

Caldwell draws comparisons with earlier great migrations, such as the Indo-European movements of antiquity, while emphasizing how modern migration disrupts cultural identity in a uniquely rapid and technologically enabled manner. He suggests that the current situation represents not just population replacement, but a fundamental transformation of national identities and languages.

Political Reactions in England and Europe

Examining the political fallout, Caldwell highlights how immigration has become the fault line in English politics. Right-wing factions, notably figures in the Conservative Party and the reformist UK Reform Party, advocate for dramatic measures including deportation, withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, and exit from international refugee agreements — moves that they acknowledge would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

These debates expose deep fractures within the political right in England and underscores the public's growing demands for sovereignty and immigration control. At the same time, mainstream political actors, including the recently elected Labour government, often dismiss anti-immigration uprisings or riots as misinformation-driven, further alienating portions of the electorate.

Turning to Germany, Caldwell paints a parallel yet distinct picture. Germany's approach to immigration and free speech is shaped by post-WWII historical consciousness and legal constraints aimed at preventing a return of fascism, leading to limits on extremist parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Although AfD is framed by authorities as a dangerous right-wing movement, Caldwell explains that it originated as an academic economic criticism of the EU's financial policies and only later became an anti-immigration party in response to the Syrian refugee crisis. Its significant electoral growth evidences widespread German discontent with immigration, despite official suppression and social taboos against overtly discussing national identity.

Economic and Social Consequences

Economically, Caldwell challenges prevailing narratives that immigration unilaterally benefits the host economy. He argues that while immigration might add units of labor that ostensibly raise GDP, this analysis neglects the demographic realities of immigrant populations eventually aging, forming families, and requiring social benefits — costs that may outweigh short-term economic gains.

Tracing historic American immigration policies, Caldwell notes how in the 19th century, the United States' abundant virgin land and relatively low population made immigration beneficial and necessary for nation-building. By contrast, current Western countries confront mass immigration without analogous frontier opportunities, contributing to social tension and perceived displacement.

He further discusses the transfer effects of immigration, whereby immigration tends to depress wages for lower-skilled native workers by increasing the labor supply, while benefiting wealthier individuals who effectively pay less for services like gardening or domestic work. In this sense, high immigration operates as a wealth transfer from the working and middle classes to the rich, exacerbating inequality — a reality that fuels political resentment.

Caldwell highlights how immigration transforms economies and societies from predominantly middle-class to more stratified, where the middle class is no longer a majority. Culinary and cultural amenities, for example, proliferate as a side effect of cheap immigrant labor, while tightening borders shifts wages upward but also reduces variety and affordability in daily life.

The Cultural Landscape of Western Societies

Delving into the cultural psyche of Western Europe and the United States since World War II, Caldwell addresses a perplexing loss of self-confidence among white Christian populations in countries like Britain and Germany. Despite military victory, imperial power, and historical achievements, these societies have embraced immigration and multicultural policies that undermine traditional nationhood.

He speculates various causes for this paradoxical self-doubt, including moral reckoning following the brutality of two World Wars, technological advances rendering other parts of the world accessible, and a desire to avoid ethnonational hostilities. Yet, this openness has led to identity crises and political instability, fostering both radical right movements and left-wing coalition-building efforts, often expressed through the language of social justice and intersectionality.

Caldwell emphasizes that many of today's social justice mechanisms, such as affirmative action and political correctness, originated as tools for racial equality but have expanded into broader instruments of social and cultural control. These measures, while curbed under recent administrations like Trump's, have deeply shaped American public discourse and behavior, often inducing a climate of caution and self-censorship.

Politics, Radicalization, and the Future of the West

Looking ahead, Caldwell warns of continued political volatility as societies grapple with these demographic, cultural, and economic transformations. He notes the polarization between parties representing the beneficiaries of Civil Rights-era policies, largely aligned with the Democratic coalition, and those who feel victimized or constrained by them, gravitating toward the Republican Party or populist right.

He acknowledges the difficulty of reversing demographic trends, suggesting that politically meaningful immigration reductions may take decades to manifest. Societies remain bifurcated between globalized urban nodes benefiting from diverse labor and static regions left behind by globalization, fueling resentments and electoral surprises.

The interlocutor and Caldwell discuss whether recent political figures like Trump represent lasting shifts or episodic disruptions. Caldwell sees Trump as an extraordinary actor who exposed deep governmental inertia and who, despite failures, enacted significant shifts including judicial appointments and rollback of affirmative action enforcement. Still, the long-term restructuring of U.S. society along new cultural and economic lines is an ongoing, unsettled process.

Comparative Perspectives: Japan and China

Caldwell contrasts Western experiences with East Asian models, particularly Japan, which maintains tight immigration controls and prioritizes cultural continuity even amid economic challenges. Japan's approach, avoiding mass immigration in favor of internal labor mobility, preserves a homogenous society with a high standard of living and cultural cohesion, offering an alternative to Western multicultural experiments.

China, meanwhile, faces its own demographic and economic pressures but has yet to embrace large-scale immigration, relying instead on controlled internal migration. These comparisons raise questions about whether other countries will reconsider immigration policies as economic conditions evolve.