We're Not Having Enough Kids - It's A Disaster - Stephen J. Shaw

The Global Fertility Crisis

Stephen Shaw opens with stark evidence documenting the demographic collapse engulfing countries like Japan and South Korea. In Japan, about two schools close every day, a trend ongoing for over 15 years. An eerie transformation is visible where strollers for pets now outsell those for children in places like South Korea and likely Japan too. Some of the gravest indicators include a reversal in the sales of nappies, where more adult diapers are sold than baby diapers, painting a vivid picture of aging and depopulation.

His research delves deeply into the delay of parenthood, emphasizing that the most significant demographic shifts are tied to when, rather than if, people become parents. For instance, the average mother in Japan or the UK today is having roughly the same number of children as mothers did in 1970, but the age at which parenthood starts has shifted much later. This shift in age causes a drop in fertility rates, as biological and societal synchronization necessary for childbearing becomes increasingly fraught.

Shaw introduces what he calls the "vitality curve," a near-perfect bell-shaped Gaussian distribution describing the age at which societies tend to have children. This curve emerged consistently from analyses of 1,539 data sets across various countries and demographics, revealing the singular importance of average parenthood age as a predictor of birth rates. Paradoxically, attempts to encourage later parenthood with technologies like IVF or policies that permit fertility postponement tend to depress this curve overall.

Delayed Parenthood

While many typically point to economic hardships, housing insecurity, cultural shifts, or gender roles as causes for the fertility decline, Shaw argues that these tend to be surface-level triggers rather than the central reason. He uses a compelling analogy of salmon fleeing from bears downstream in a river; removing the initial trigger (the bears) does not guarantee the fish will return upstream. In similar fashion, reversing delayed parenthood is far more complex than correcting economic or social grievances.

Shaw underscores how parental delay is disproportionately affected by people who have not yet had their first child, while those who are already parents show resilience to such delays. Additionally, the shift in dating, relationships, and pair bonding—essential components for reproduction—have been stretched out in contemporary society, making synchronization between partners much harder. This leads to "unplanned childlessness," a term Shaw highlights to capture the many people who want children but end up childless due to timing, breakup, partner issues, or unforeseen changes.

Interestingly, long-term trends in countries like the US during the economic boom years of the 1980s show that rising incomes and economic growth did not translate into higher birth rates, indicating that economic fixes alone may not reverse fertility declines.

Impacts of Depopulation

The consequences of this fertility collapse reveal themselves in multiple striking ways. Shaw recounts poignant scenes from his documentary where empty playgrounds, shuttered shops, and deserted streets embody communities hollowed out by the demographic implosion. He shares a particularly heartbreaking encounter with a Japanese woman returning to her childhood suburb only to find it populated overwhelmingly by aging, lonely residents, mostly single women whose partners have passed away. The loneliness and isolation felt by many elderly individuals in depopulated areas have tragic repercussions—including reports of suicides linked to despair and solitude.

These aging communities, which Shaw calls "yester lands," are a common feature beyond Japan, found in Germany and beyond, often overlooked in the bustling urban centers where population density is still high. This demographic hollowing out points to an impending humanitarian crisis, particularly notable in countries that lack the financial reserves of wealthier nations, such as Brazil and parts of Latin America, where the fertility rate has plummeted beneath replacement levels despite cultural and religious traditions valuing large families.

The Role of Fertility Education

Another major theme Shaw addresses is the widespread ignorance around fertility biology and the dangers of misinformation. He laments how comprehensive sex education often centers solely on preventing pregnancy rather than informing young people about fertility windows, biological limits, and the concept of unplanned childlessness. This lack of honest dialogue, Shaw argues, contributes to many people unintentionally missing their fertile years due to misconceptions and societal pressures to delay parenthood.

Moreover, Shaw identifies a troubling rise of "antinatalist" ideologies represented in some educational materials and public conversations, derived historically from influential but now outdated population control narratives. These ideologies frame having children as environmentally irresponsible or selfish and actively discourage parenthood through subtle to explicit messaging. Shaw calls this an antihuman narrative that not only distorts reality but also damages societal willingness to openly confront the fertility crisis.

Gender Dynamics and Economic Realities

Shaw also discusses the interconnectedness of male and female fertility patterns, emphasizing that men are often overlooked in these discussions. The same bell curve pattern applies to fathers, aligning timing between men and women in reproductive choices. He stresses that the challenges of modern parenthood—especially the economic necessity of dual incomes—mean that women's increased education and career aspirations coincide with men's similar trends, creating a compounded effect on delayed family formation.

Addressing economic concerns, Shaw acknowledges the role of housing insecurity, job precarity, and the high costs of raising children, particularly in urban centers. However, he challenges the expectation that solving these issues alone will reverse the trend, given that rising incomes often result instead in deferred parenthood. Examples from Hungary's family policies demonstrate that innovative approaches tied to young people's real-life incentives—such as mortgage deposit waivers contingent on having children—can create localized bubbles of younger parenthood and increased birth rates, suggesting a need for structural reinvention.

Toward Solutions

Arguing that only systemic reinvention can create meaningful change, Shaw suggests radical reforms spanning education and employment. He envisions restructured education pathways where young people can spend purposeful years focusing on reproductive awareness and lifelong learning, allowing more flexibility to balance early career development and family formation. Similarly, he imagines employment models permitting parents, especially mothers, to take long sabbaticals while retaining professional ties to reduce career penalties for early childbearing.

At the heart of Shaw's proposed solutions is fostering new societal bubbles where young people cluster around childbearing ages rather than stretching parenthood out indefinitely. This systemic realignment could gradually re-anchor the vitality curve at younger ages, potentially restoring fertility rates closer to replacement levels.

Grief and Loneliness of Childlessness

A profound theme throughout this discussion is the emotional and psychological toll of involuntary and unplanned childlessness. Shaw describes the hidden grief suffered by many who long for children but never realize that desire, often living in silence and private sorrow. This grief spans gender lines, with both men and women experiencing it deeply.

He emphasizes that society largely ignores this loss, often assuming childlessness to be voluntary or inconsequential. The isolation and lack of open conversation compound feelings of loneliness, while societal narratives about family and success exclude those for whom parenthood remains an unfulfilled hope.

The Broader Humanitarian Crisis

Stephen Shaw ends with a chilling reminder that the fertility crisis is inseparable from the looming challenges of aging populations, particularly in nations without adequate social safety nets like Brazil and India. As birth rates fall, these countries will soon face an unprecedented humanitarian challenge: large populations of elderly citizens with insufficient younger generations to provide support. He calls for expanded awareness and long-term planning to address these demographic shifts before they trigger catastrophic social breakdowns.