"The Real Risk is Totalitarian World Government" - Peter Thiel

Added: Jul 29, 2024

He suggests this stagnation is due to various factors, including the corruption, politicization, and bureaucratization of many STEM fields. There is less willingness to have bold ideas and take risks, resulting in incrementalism and slow progress. Economically, this manifests as stagnant living standards and rising government debt. Thiel's "median case" prediction is that this trend will likely continue - continued progress in the digital world but ongoing regulation and stagnation in the physical world of "atoms."

Thiel emphasizes that the physical world is ultimately more important, as we are embodied beings. He argues we need actual cures and treatments, not just apps that tell us we'll get dementia. Overall, he paints a picture of an innovative digital sector but a largely stagnant physical world.

Courage vs. Genius

Thiel has argued that in the modern West, courage is in shorter supply than genius. He clarifies that he uses "genius" in the narrow sense of high IQ, which he sees as the "Silicon Valley perspective" focused on things like algorithm tests in hiring.

He suggests there are many intelligent people by that definition who end up not being very creative or impactful. As an example, he points to the "brilliant but eccentric professor" type that was already going extinct when he was in college in the 1980s - someone who was a polymath with ideas on many subjects. That type has largely disappeared, replaced by people who may score well on IQ tests but lack broader creativity.

Thiel acknowledges that people are incentivized to conform in many settings, like big tech companies. However, he argues that at the margin, a little more courage would do a lot of good. He suggests people can be blamed to some degree for putting themselves in situations where they can't be creative, like academia, without thinking enough about the social context.

This dynamic may partly explain why there are many successful entrepreneurs in tech who are on the autism spectrum - they see the world differently and are less connected to social pressures. Thiel sees this as a commentary on how insane and deranged our society has become, that someone with less social awareness may actually be at an advantage in some ways.

The Future and Existential Risks

When asked about predictions for the future, Thiel is hesitant to make specific forecasts. He emphasizes that as an investor, he looks for unique businesses with a competitive advantage or "moat," not just commodified competition.

Regarding AI specifically, Thiel believes the breakthroughs are important and will have an enormous impact on society. However, he sees AI investments as very treacherous currently, comparing it to the internet in 1999 - clearly transformative but with many failed businesses and a roller coaster even for successful ones like Amazon.

Thiel acknowledges the various concerns about AI's impact on jobs, social connections, and potentially existential risks. However, he pushes back against the "precautionary principle" advocated by some AI safety proponents. Instead, he argues that the greater existential risk is actually the possibility of a totalitarian one-world government emerging in response to various global threats.

He suggests that the implicit answer to many existential risks is some form of global governance. Thiel sees this as potentially far more dangerous than the risks it aims to prevent. He argues that since people are worried about dangerous AI but not a one-world nanny state, we should actually be more concerned about the latter.

Social Media and Technology's Impact

While acknowledging concerns about social media's impact on our brains and social relationships, Thiel cautions against making tech companies scapegoats for all societal problems. He argues that bigger issues are the failure of schools, the "wokeness" of K-12 education, and the "derangements" of universities.

Thiel suggests that many young people don't know what they should be doing with their lives, which he attributes more to stagnation than spending too much time on social media. His main critique of social media is not that it's polarizing society, but that it's homogenizing it and reducing heterodox thinking. However, he notes that the internet still allows for a wider range of ideas to be explored compared to traditional media.

Regarding the spread of "woke" ideology, Thiel offers a religious interpretation. He suggests viewing "wokeness" as an ultra or hyper Christianity - an extreme intensification that maintains ideas like original sin and the terribleness of the past, but without forgiveness. As traditional religious authority declined, people didn't become rationalist atheists but instead adopted this new quasi-religious worldview.

China and Geopolitics

Thiel sees China as a significant geopolitical threat, more so than issues like Islamic terrorism that some in Europe are more concerned about. He argues that China is determined to catch up to and ultimately beat the West in science and technology, potentially using that leverage to dominate the planet.

While acknowledging arguments that China's threat may be overstated due to demographic and economic challenges, Thiel contends that the West understated the threat for a very long time. He points to decisions like admitting China to the WTO and hollowing out Western manufacturing as potentially dangerous moves that ignored the military dimensions of economic policy.

Thiel suggests that managing China's rise might have been possible if it had transformed into a liberal Western democracy, but that clearly hasn't happened. He sees China's totalitarian ideology as deeply incompatible with Western values, creating a difficult situation to manage as China seeks to become the world's leading power.

Regarding other geopolitical issues, Thiel argues that US Middle East policy should focus squarely on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, as that would radically destabilize the region. On Russia, he sees the Ukraine conflict as almost a proxy for the potential conflict over Taiwan, with Russia acting as a kind of Chinese client state.

The Taiwan Situation

Thiel expresses uncertainty about whether the US is capable of defending Taiwan militarily. However, he predicts that a Taiwan crisis would lead to extreme economic decoupling between China and the West, even if it doesn't result in full-scale war. He compares it to having "100 pipelines" between China and the West that would all "blow up" the day of a Taiwan invasion.

Given this, Thiel advises preparing for decoupling in advance rather than maintaining the "fake notion" that economic coupling creates stability. He points to the example of Germany's energy dependence on Russia as a cautionary tale of how coupling can actually lead to instability and miscalculation.

The Crisis of the West

Throughout the interview, Thiel returns to the theme of a broader crisis in Western civilization. He sees many of the issues discussed - technological stagnation, conformity of thought, geopolitical challenges - as symptoms of this larger problem.

When asked what we should be talking about more, Thiel emphasizes this "crisis of the West" and the need to figure out how to create a better future for younger generations in Western societies. However, he also pushes back against focusing too much on speech and debate, arguing that what's really needed is action. Thiel contends that while talking about these issues may be necessary, it's not sufficient - we need to actually build the future we want to see.