Ryan Serhant’s Shocking Prediction For Housing Prices, Mamdani Victory, & ‘Freeze The Rent!’

The Current Housing Market

Ryan starts by confronting the anxiety many feel about an impending housing bubble. Interestingly, he rejects the bubble narrative outright, painting instead a picture of a dire affordability crisis. To him, the sky-high prices can be explained by fundamental economic pressures rather than irrational exuberance ready to burst. Rate hikes, inventory scarcity, and stagnant job growth are the forces squeezing buyers and renters alike. The real problem lies deeper than prices—they reflect an imbalanced market where supply can't keep pace with pent-up demand.

This crisis nudges many potential homeowners toward rentals, yet rents themselves remain stratospheric. Unlike bubbles, where defaults explode, mortgage delinquencies remain relatively low, supported by historically stringent lending standards post-2008. What Ryan reveals is that this crisis is tied to affordability, not collapse. Could this mean stabilization or slow thawing? Or will chronic supply shortages keep prices locked in a painful stratosphere?

Impact of Mamdani's Victory

The election of Mamdani as New York City's mayor, with a promise to "freeze the rent," has set off waves of market panic among investors and landlords. Ryan captures the paradox of this political approach: it resonates powerfully with an angry electorate burdened by rising costs, yet such policies risk cutting off incentives for landlords and developers to maintain or create housing.

Freezing rent prices sounds like relief in a city gripped by high rents and increasing homelessness—a nod to justice in a deeply unequal market. However, Ryan warns of unintended consequences. Without profitability, landlords might neglect repairs, leading to building decay reminiscent of New York's 1960s and 70s. Developers, deprived of incentives, could halt new construction, freezing inventory even further. What happens when promises to "take from some to give to others" choke the very market that supplies housing? Is there a middle ground between empathy and economic reality?

Inventory Scarcity

One of the most persistent threads through the conversation is the crippling lack of housing inventory. Ryan points to restrictive zoning, burdensome permitting processes, and an absence of meaningful developer incentives as root causes. The complexities of New York's real estate regulations are staggering—fixing something simple, like adding a two-bedroom unit, can cost tens of thousands of dollars and drag on for months because of onerous city rules.

This scarcity is compounded by demographic patterns—many baby boomers cling to low-interest mortgages, unwilling or unable to sell and move, further restricting market flow. As a result, demand chokes supply, feeding an upward spiral of prices. Ryan underscores that unless policy pivots toward encouraging more construction and easing red tape, prices will only be pressured higher. Can policies truly unleash construction in a city famous for its bureaucratic inertia?

Foreign Buyers

Contrary to popular belief, Ryan debunks the widespread narrative that foreign investors are hoarding luxury condos in New York City, leaving them vacant and inflating prices artificially. While this was more prominent during the Obama years when the dollar was weaker, today foreign purchases are less significant, partly because currency shifts made U.S. real estate less attractive.

Most of New York's market activity is driven locally, with wealthy New Yorkers buying secondary or primary residences. Even many properties that seem empty are owned domestically. This insight challenges a common scapegoat often blamed for New York's housing woes. What does this say about perceptions versus realities in real estate myths? How much does politicized rhetoric cloud actual market dynamics?

Real Estate Investment in Fear-Driven Markets

Ryan emphasizes that in moments of market panic, savvy investors find fertile ground. History shows that New York real estate rebounds stronger after shocks—be it 9/11, 2008 crash, or Hurricane Sandy. The pandemic slowdown created steep discounts on high-end properties that have since surged in value.

The same pattern is visible in Los Angeles and other markets where fear has created unusual entry points. Buyers willing to endure the operational headaches—whether renovations or legal challenges—can secure significant gains. Could this be the perfect time, masked by anxiety, for those with capital and patience to act? How does fear, both societal and economic, serve as both a barrier and an opportunity?

Legal Complexities

Amid many fascinating themes, Ryan sheds light on an often undervalued topic: the critical importance of legal strategy in real estate and business generally. He candidly shares how inadequate legal counsel became a costly mistake in his early career. Today, he views legal readiness and insurance as inseparable from growth, not optional expenses.

Whether defending against copyright trolls or handling complex contracts, having top-tier legal support shields companies against debilitating setbacks. Ryan advises entrepreneurs to invest in quality over quantity when building their teams, emphasizing that effective legal strategy is a constant defense and offense in competitive industries. How many businesses underestimate the cost of legal vulnerabilities until it's too late?

Entrepreneurial Pathways

Ryan observes a transformation in the demographics and mindset of wealth creation over the past decade. Today's wealthy tend to be younger and benefit from a more meritocratic, scalable economy, especially with AI and technology democratizing access. Where prior generations might have struggled an entire career to accumulate assets, today's entrepreneurs swing boldly for the fences, driven by new platforms and tools.

This shift reflects not only generational changes but also innovations in how money is made—from crypto investments to tech startups and even niche areas like professional pickleball teams. Could this mean wealth will become more diffused or volatile? What lessons do traditional investors need to learn from these new wealth pathways?

Data-Driven Opportunities

Never far from conversation, AI looms as a seismic force shaping the future. Ryan explains that the real game-changing impact is not just visible AI applications but the vast data infrastructure—the "data lake"—powering these technologies. Across industries, AI promises to fuel efficiency at scales previously unimaginable, while simultaneously slashing costs.

This AI revolution will create unprecedented opportunities in real estate brokerage, marketing, and customer service. For instance, new digital tools allow agents to operate across states and platforms seamlessly, delivering personalized experiences with far less friction. Are we witnessing the end of traditional business models as AI-infused alternatives become dominant? What happens to legacy industries that resist this wave?

Social Media as Business Accelerator

Between real estate insights, Ryan and the host also dive into cultural phenomena like streaming and social media, highlighting their growing role in business growth and community-building. The rise of streamers like IShowSpeed illustrate an entirely new form of charisma-driven entrepreneurship that commands massive global audiences and revenue.

Similarly, content platforms like YouTube represent goldmines for targeted marketing, outperforming traditional ads by connecting businesses with organic, engaged audiences. Ryan emphasizes that embracing these digital channels offers impressive leverage with minimal cost—a compelling case for any entrepreneur. How much more will content ownership redefine success in the coming decade?

Challenges of Managing Large Teams

As a leader managing nearly 2,000 staff and thousands of agents, Ryan reflects on the intricacies of scaling culture and productivity amid hybrid work models. He stresses the importance of strong leadership presence, cautioning that some executive-level roles require in-person collaboration to retain "magic" moments lost over Zoom.

Yet he acknowledges the reality of remote talents spread across the U.S., balancing flexibility with operational needs. The key, he suggests, is hiring uniquely qualified people, setting clear expectations, and celebrating wins to inspire collective engagement. In a world increasingly divided between virtual and physical, how do leaders foster cohesion and accountability without suffocating autonomy?

Renovations and Landlord Challenges

An eye-opening anecdote Ryan shares reveals the true cost of owning and renovating housing in cities like New York or Los Angeles—not just in money but time and frustration. From prolonged permitting delays, conflicting inspections, to elaborate urban forestry rules, the regulatory maze can turn a simple upgrade into a multi-month ordeal that deters landlords from investing.

This bureaucratic bottleneck inadvertently worsens the affordability crisis as older units degrade and new construction stalls. It raises critical questions about how cities balance safety and standards with the urgent need to maintain and increase housing stock. What reforms could cut through red tape without compromising quality or safety?

New York City's Unique Allure

Throughout the conversation, Ryan's affection for New York City shines through—a place rich in energy, intellectual curiosity, and opportunity. He describes it as a vertical, tightly packed metropolis where every walk can introduce you to people driving industries as diverse as finance, art, tech, and fashion. This melting pot creates an unmatched social and professional ecosystem.

Yet, he also acknowledges the high barrier to entry, demanding resilience, resources, and often a willingness to navigate complex systems just to live and work there. For many, this exclusivity simultaneously fuels ambition and frustration. Will New York maintain its magnetic pull in an era of remote work and evolving urban priorities? Or will affordability and bureaucracy gradually erode its exceptional character?