Will Republicans Win In 2026?

In this podcast episode, Ben Shapiro dives into several pressing political and international issues shaping the current landscape for Republicans heading into the 2026 elections. The discussion covers the fragile GOP majority in the House following the death of a key lawmaker, President Trump's actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, internal GOP challenges, domestic policy battles over affordability and government waste, and a significant Supreme Court case concerning chemical company liability. Shapiro is joined by Montana Senator Tim Shehy and health activist Alex Clark to analyze these developments.

GOP House Majority and Midterm Challenges

The GOP's control in the House of Representatives is at its most precarious point, shrinking to the bare minimum following the death of Representative Doug LaMalfa and the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene, among other factors. This puts Speaker Mike Johnson in a difficult position to maintain a workable majority, especially when a few Republicans like Thomas Massie routinely oppose party initiatives and the incapacitation of members further reduces numbers. With the 2024 elections being off-year and President Trump off the ballot, Republicans face an uphill battle since incumbents historically suffer in midterms. Shapiro highlights the urgent need for Republicans to achieve legislative successes this year to position themselves for a stronger showing in 2026.

Foreign Policy Wins and Trump's Venezuela Strategy

Contrary to the belief that foreign policy has little impact on electoral outcomes, Shapiro argues that foreign policy victories can energize key constituencies, including Hispanic voters who were a decisive factor in the 2024 election. Trump's aggressive moves against Venezuela, such as the seizure of illegal oil tankers—one escorted by a Russian submarine—and the extradition of Maduro, are key examples. These actions demonstrate a restored American resolve and have broad Republican support, reinforcing the "Make America Great Again" ethos. Shapiro notes that while the oil shipments announced might not greatly affect global prices, they symbolize tangible gains and a roadmap for victory that Trump presents to House Republicans.

Political Dynamics Within the GOP

While Trump urges unity and effective governance, internal divisions persist within the party. Figures like Massie and Taylor Greene dissent publicly, complicating efforts to maintain discipline. Yet, the majority of Republicans rally behind Trump's agenda, including the decisive stance on Venezuela. Shapiro suggests Trump's pressure on wayward Republicans is a strategy aimed at enforcing loyalty and presenting a united front heading into future electoral battles. The broader GOP challenge is to navigate internal dissent while pushing forward a coherent policy plan to prevent losing the House in upcoming elections.

Democrat Strategy and the Affordability Focus

Democrats have shifted away from controversial cultural issues like transgender rights and DEI policies toward focusing on affordability as their main talking point. They criticize Trump's foreign interventions as distractions from domestic economic concerns, framing the midterms as a choice between prioritizing American families or foreign entanglements like Venezuela. Shapiro points out that while the affordability issue resonates because prices remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels, Republican messaging linking affordability problems to Democratic government expansion, fraud, and immigration policy has political traction, especially in battleground states.

Fraud, Waste, Abuse, and Government Size

A major theme explored is the connection between government size, Democratic policies, and systemic fraud—highlighted by recent Medicaid fraud cases in Minnesota involving a large Somali community, among others across New York and California. Shapiro emphasizes how unchecked welfare expansion combined with lax immigration enforcement fosters fraud that burdens taxpayers and exacerbates affordability issues. He stresses that Republicans must leverage these narratives against Democrats' plans to expand government further. Breakdown of Democratic leadership, including resignations under fraud scandals, underpins a broader argument for smaller government as a solution to restoring fiscal responsibility and economic stability.

Health Care and Obamacare Subsidy Cliff

Healthcare remains a complicated battlefield. Republicans face challenges addressing the withdrawal of expanded Obamacare subsidies, which causes premium spikes for many Americans. Shapiro discusses President Trump's proposal to replace subsidies with direct health savings account (HSA) deposits to empower consumers, though noting that current proposed amounts may prove insufficient. He highlights a bipartisan two-year proposal to extend and adjust subsidies while imposing income verification to curb abuse as a pragmatic stopgap ahead of midterms. The strategy aims to prevent catastrophic healthcare cost increases becoming a Democratic wedge issue while Republicans refine long-term reforms.

Social Media, Political Messaging, and Distractions

Shapiro cautions Republican politicians against getting caught in social media "rabbit holes" that distract from substantive messaging on affordability, government accountability, and policy wins. Referencing a piece by Ohio governor candidate Vet Ramaswami, he quotes the warning that social media feedback loops are often manufactured by bots and foreign actors, skewing politicians' focus away from voters' real concerns. Staying disciplined and message-focused is critical to maintaining electoral viability and avoiding alienation of swing voters.

Trump's Greenland Obsession and National Security

Discussing ongoing Trump commentary on Greenland, Shapiro explains the strategic importance of Greenland to U.S. national security, particularly given Russian and Chinese military activities in the Arctic. Although buying Greenland is off the table due to Danish sovereignty and local resistance, the U.S. plans to bolster military presence on the island to counter adversaries. The conversation mixes humor with sober acknowledgment that controlling key geopolitical locations is essential for maintaining American influence and protecting NATO interests.

Iran Unrest and Regional Stability

Shapiro updates on widespread protests and unrest in Iran, which suggest weakening control by the Ayatollah regime. He explains how internal factions like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps remain key to regime survival but also vulnerable to pressures similar to those imposed on Venezuela. Trump's aggressive foreign policy actions send signals to Iran and other adversaries that the U.S. will respond decisively to threats and abuses, contributing to shifts in regional dynamics and potential openings for democratic change.

Supreme Court Case on Chemical Company Liability

Alex Clark joins the discussion to break down a crucial Supreme Court case involving Bayer, owner of Monsanto, seeking immunity from state-level lawsuits for health damages allegedly caused by Roundup weed killer. The case challenges whether federal Environmental Protection Agency approvals preempt state tort claims. Clark warns that if the court sides with Bayer, it could shield thousands of pesticides and chemical products from liability even when linked to cancer or hormone disruption, based on flawed or fraudulent science. This could severely undermine corporate accountability and informed consumer consent, posing risks particularly for children exposed to these chemicals.

Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Movement and State-Level Food Policy

Clark highlights successful MAHA initiatives to reform childhood vaccine schedules and oppose unhealthy food subsidies through SNAP programs. Several states have enacted soda and candy bans for food stamp purchases, aiming to combat obesity and reduce public healthcare costs. These health-focused reforms reflect a broader conservative push for personal responsibility blended with government policies that promote well-being without expanding regulatory overreach. The federal government's recalibrated childhood vaccine guidance is seen as a modest but symbolic win for parental choice and transparency.

Venezuelan Operation and Future Outlook

Senator Tim Shehy provides firsthand insight into the successful U.S. special operations mission that resulted in Maduro's arrest and extradition. He contextualizes the operation as a precise, targeted mission embodying decades of special ops evolution dating back to the failed 1980 Eagle Claw mission. Shehy emphasizes that Venezuela was more than a narco-state; it was a nexus point for global rogue regimes and terrorist funding. The current approach avoids full regime change or major troop deployments, instead containing the regime while encouraging democratic transition under close U.S. supervision. This calibrated strategy balances sovereignty concerns with American strategic interests.

China's Reaction and Global Implications

The New York Times' claim that U.S. actions in Venezuela might embolden China to expand influence is dismissed by Shapiro as uninformed. Contrary to suggestions that Beijing would interpret U.S. force as weakness, the Venezuelan operation sends a signal of American resolve in its sphere of influence. The notion that China's Taiwan ambitions would be tempered by U.S. assertiveness in Latin America is deemed logical and consistent with longstanding U.S. policy objectives to contain authoritarian influence globally.

Iran's Internal Collapse and U.S. Pressure

Continued unrest in Iran, including violence in Tehran's Grand Bazaar and border regions, indicates the regime's fragility. Shapiro notes fears within the regime of large-scale repression due to possible U.S. intervention. He explains how sanctions, targeted strikes, and internal dissent combine to undermine the Iranian government's grip. The administration's stance of supporting democratic movements abroad while containing hostile regimes fits within a renewed American foreign policy playbook emphasizing targeted action with limited troop commitments.

Vaccine Schedule Overhaul and Health Policy

The revamped childhood vaccine schedule implemented by Health and Human Services under RFK Jr. aims to align more with countries like Denmark and Japan, reducing the number and timing of certain vaccines. While some pediatricians fear confusion and reduced immunization rates, the policy maintains core vaccines for major diseases, emphasizing clinical consultation over blanket mandates. This approach is framed as promoting individual health decisions and reducing vaccine hesitancy fueled by overly rigid schedules.

Final Thoughts with Guests

Shapiro's guests, Senator Shehy and Alex Clark, offer expert perspectives on defense, foreign policy, and health reform, framing these developments as part of a broader conservative resurgence centered on America's strength, government accountability, and family health. The podcast's wide-ranging discourse underscores the complexity of political strategy and governance as Republicans prepare to navigate turbulent upcoming election cycles.