Is War Forever Changed? | Victor Davis Hanson
Added: Jul 29, 2024
In this podcast episode, Victor Davis Hanson, a distinguished military historian and commentator, joins Ben Shapiro to discuss a wide range of topics including foreign policy, military history, and the potential decline of American power. The conversation begins with an analysis of the recent Biden-Trump debate, with Hanson expressing concern about the apparent lack of leadership in the current administration. He worries that adversaries around the world might see this as an opportunity to act aggressively, given the uncertainty surrounding who is actually in charge of the country.
The discussion then moves to Hanson's latest book, "The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation." Hanson highlights common themes he observed in historical examples of civilizational collapse, including a society's inability to recognize its own vulnerability and its lack of understanding about potential adversaries. He draws parallels between these historical patterns and the current state of the United States, pointing out that America often dismisses threats from adversaries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea as mere rhetoric.
Hanson expresses concern about America's diminishing deterrence capabilities, citing factors such as the national debt, military recruitment challenges, and the alienation of certain demographic groups within the armed forces. He criticizes the inconsistent approach to foreign policy, particularly in relation to Ukraine and Israel, noting the contradictory messages sent to these allies regarding proportionality in conflict, ceasefire demands, and expectations for governance.
The Ideological Divide and Israel
The conversation shifts to the ideological underpinnings of the left's attitude towards Israel. Hanson agrees with Shapiro's assessment that the left's animosity towards Israel stems from the country's success, which contradicts the victim-victimizer narrative promoted by intersectional theory. He notes the left's difficulty in reconciling Jewish success with their historical persecution, leading to a reframing of Jews as privileged and Israel as an oppressor in the Middle East context.
Hanson points out the influence of Middle Eastern funding in American universities and the changing demographics on elite campuses, which he believes have contributed to the rise of anti-Semitic sentiments. He also highlights the insecurity of students admitted under relaxed entrance requirements as a factor in the increased political activism and claims of victimhood on campuses.
Military Strategy and Western Misconceptions
The discussion then turns to military strategy and the West's misconceptions about warfare. Hanson argues that the West has lost sight of what it means to win a war since World War II, adopting a belief that conflicts can be clean and antiseptic. He emphasizes that the only way to truly win a war is through the use of disproportionate force to destroy the enemy's ability and will to fight, followed by the imposition of terms.
Hanson criticizes the self-imposed restrictions on Western military actions, arguing that these limitations make defense more expensive than offense against low-tech adversaries. He suggests that a more assertive and unpredictable approach, similar to that employed by figures like General Sherman in the American Civil War, could be more effective in deterring aggression from adversaries.
The Decline of American Power
Addressing the potential decline of American power, Hanson identifies several factors contributing to this trend. These include the nation's financial situation, the erosion of military deterrence, and the cultural arrogance that assumes other nations desire to emulate the United States. He warns about the dangers of uncontrolled immigration and the growth of the administrative state, drawing parallels to historical examples of declining empires.
Hanson expresses concern about the increasing polarization within the United States, noting the emergence of two distinct societal paradigms in red and blue states. He highlights the self-selection of populations moving to areas that align with their values and the growing disconnect between these regions in terms of culture, media consumption, and political beliefs.
The Future of America
Looking to the future, Hanson discusses the potential for significant changes in the American landscape. While acknowledging that the country's geography provides some protection against external threats, he warns about the internal divisions that could lead to a fragmentation of the nation. He points out that unlike the Civil War era, there seems to be a mutual desire for separation between left-leaning and right-leaning states.
However, Hanson ends on a note of cautious optimism regarding Donald Trump's potential to unite the country. He argues that Trump's approach of emphasizing class solidarity over racial divisions could appeal to a broad spectrum of working-class Americans across different ethnic backgrounds. He suggests that if Trump were to win a significant portion of the black and Latino vote, implement strong border policies, focus on energy independence, and address crime and drug issues, he could potentially heal the country through economic success.
Hanson draws parallels between the current political climate and the 1980 election, where Ronald Reagan overcame skepticism to win decisively. He predicts that a similar shift in public opinion could occur in favor of Trump, potentially leading to a significant victory in the upcoming election.
Conclusion
Throughout the conversation, Hanson emphasizes the importance of understanding historical patterns and their relevance to current geopolitical challenges. He stresses the need for strong leadership, clear strategic thinking, and a willingness to confront difficult realities in order to maintain America's position on the world stage and address internal divisions.
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