Is It Too Late To Stop Massive Global Conflict?

Added: Jun 26, 2024

1. Iran developing a nuclear bomb and threatening Israel, leading to U.S. intervention and escalation

2. Chinese frustration over Taiwan's status leading to an invasion attempt

3. Growing division between democratic Western nations and authoritarian Eurasian states resulting in some kind of space-based attack on Western communication systems.

Shapiro argues that the key issue is not trying to change human nature and eliminate the tendency for war, but rather understanding that aggression thrives where strength is absent. He contends that each of Overy's scenarios stems from Western weakness and a lack of clear purpose and unity in the West. Shapiro criticizes the post-Cold War West for being internally divided and unsure of what it stands for, citing growing right-wing parties in Europe as a symptom of centrist and left-wing parties forgetting the purpose of their nations.

Western Weakness and Internal Division

Shapiro points to internal divisions in Western countries as a major source of weakness that emboldens adversaries. He criticizes politicians who talk about the possibility of civil war, arguing this makes things worse by putting the idea in people's heads. Shapiro contends that when the West is perceived as weak and internally divided, attacks on the West tend to increase. He argues that concessions and attempts to appease enemies generally don't work, and that peace through strength is more effective - the idea that you don't have to fight everywhere because potential adversaries are afraid to challenge you.

As an example of problematic internal division, Shapiro discusses recent pro-Palestinian protests in the United States that have turned violent, including an incident where protesters blocked access to a synagogue in Los Angeles. He criticizes the responses from President Biden and LA Mayor Karen Bass as inadequate, arguing they failed to specifically condemn the ideology behind the protests. Shapiro contends this stems from a left-wing belief that the West is inherently bad and owes apologies to the rest of the world.

Debate Preparation and Moderator Controversy

Shapiro discusses the upcoming debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, focusing on controversy over the debate moderators. He argues Trump should not have immediately accepted Biden's debate offer without negotiating the moderators. Shapiro plays clips showing CNN's Jake Tapper, one of the moderators, comparing Trump's rhetoric to Hitler's in the past. He also discusses an incident where a Trump campaign spokesperson was cut off during a CNN interview for criticizing the debate moderators.

Shapiro outlines Biden's debate preparation process, including mock debate stages set up at Camp David. He notes both candidates are out of practice as debaters. Shapiro argues Trump's main strategy should be to focus on policy failings during Biden's presidency, rather than getting drawn into discussions of past events like the 2020 election. He criticizes Democrats' attempts to paint Trump as an extremist on abortion, arguing Trump has actually taken a politically smart position by framing it as a state-level issue.

Julian Assange Plea Deal

Shapiro discusses the news that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has cut a plea deal to serve a 5-year prison sentence for violating the Espionage Act. He provides background on the legal issues surrounding Assange's prosecution, noting the challenges of prosecuting someone for publishing classified information without setting a dangerous precedent for journalism. Shapiro expresses concern that the plea deal represents another example of weakness from the Biden administration, allowing Assange to essentially go free after serving time in British custody.

Transgender Health Guidelines Controversy

Shapiro covers a story broken by Jesse Singal about controversy surrounding transgender health guidelines. According to documents unsealed in a lawsuit, Assistant Secretary for Health Rachel Levine allegedly pressured the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH) to rush the development of new standards of care and remove age guidelines for various medical interventions. Shapiro argues this undermines trust in experts and scientific processes, criticizing the idea of making major policy decisions about transgender medicine for children based on political considerations rather than evidence.

China's Space Ambitions and Diplomatic Tensions

Shapiro discusses China's growing space capabilities, including a recent mission that returned rock samples from the far side of the moon. He notes concerns from U.S. officials about China's plans to build lunar bases and potentially claim strategic locations on the moon. Shapiro argues this highlights how China's authoritarian system allows it to mobilize enormous resources for specific projects, while the U.S. is distracted by internal issues.

The podcast also covers diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China. Despite surface-level stabilization of relations, Shapiro cites comments from U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns indicating China is undermining people-to-people ties by intimidating Chinese citizens who attend U.S.-organized events and restricting the embassy's social media posts. Shapiro argues that "stabilization" under Biden often means concession, while China continues to act aggressively beneath the surface.

Broader Geopolitical Analysis

Throughout the podcast, Shapiro provides broader analysis of geopolitical dynamics and U.S. foreign policy. He criticizes what he sees as a tendency in the West, particularly on the left, to blame itself for global problems and to believe that concessions to adversaries will lead to peace. Shapiro argues this mindset emboldens aggressive actors like China, Russia, and Iran.

Shapiro contends that peace is best maintained through strength and clear deterrence, not through apologies or attempts to appease enemies. He points to historical examples like the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan as cases where military defeat was necessary to eliminate dangerous ideologies.

Regarding China specifically, Shapiro argues that while the U.S. has long-term advantages, China feels pressure to act aggressively in the short term before its window of opportunity closes. He suggests this dynamic increases the risk of conflict, as China may feel compelled to make bold moves quickly.

Domestic Political Commentary

While focused primarily on foreign policy and geopolitics, Shapiro also touches on several domestic political issues throughout the podcast. He criticizes what he sees as growing anti-Israel and anti-Semitic sentiment on the American left, arguing it stems from a broader ideological opposition to meritocracy and Western values.

Shapiro also discusses the upcoming U.S. presidential election, offering his thoughts on debate strategies for both Trump and Biden. He argues Trump should focus on policy failings during Biden's term, while criticizing Democrats' attempts to make abortion a central campaign issue.

Conclusion

Throughout the podcast, Shapiro's central argument is that perceived Western weakness and internal division are emboldening adversaries and increasing the risk of major conflicts. He contends that a clear sense of purpose, internal unity, and willingness to project strength are necessary to maintain peace and stability. Shapiro is critical of what he sees as a tendency in the Biden administration and on the political left more broadly to apologize for the West and make concessions to adversaries. He argues for a more assertive foreign policy stance based on deterrence through strength.