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Introduction
Table of contents
• Introduction • Democrats' Two-Pronged Strategy for 2028 • The Pete Hegseth Narco-Strike Controversy • Senator Mark Kelly's Position and Presidential Prospects • Tennessee's 7th Congressional District Special Election • The Pardon of Former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernandez • Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Fraud Investigations • National Guard Shooting Incident and Immigration Debate • Republican Party's Internal Divides and Future Challenges • Economic Concerns and International Market Pressures • Guest Interview with Matt VanepsIn this episode, Ben Shapiro delves into several pressing political and military issues shaping the 2028 election landscape, including the contentious allegations against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth related to a controversial strike on a narco-trafficking boat. Shapiro explores the Democrats' strategic positioning concerning military orders, Senator Mark Kelly's potential presidential aspirations, the unexpectedly tight special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, and additional political developments involving immigration, economy, and ongoing investigations.
Democrats' Two-Pronged Strategy for 2028
Shapiro outlines what he perceives as a dual approach by Democrats ahead of the 2028 election. The first prong involves casting doubt and unease within the military by accusing administration officials, such as Secretary Hegseth, of issuing illegal war orders. Democrats, including moderate senators like Mark Kelly and Alyssa Slotkin, warn service members about the consequences of obeying illegal orders without clearly defining what constitutes such orders. This ambiguity effectively places military personnel in a catch-22—either obey potentially illegal commands and risk future prosecution, or disobey lawful orders and face immediate punishment. Shapiro argues this is a deliberate attempt to sow confusion and chaos in military ranks.
The second prong of the strategy entails Democratic leaders presenting a moderate image to regain broader appeal. Shapiro points out that away from deep-blue areas like New York, Democrats are downplaying previously prominent culture war issues such as transgender rights and DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion). On immigration, for example, Democrats have softened their stance, accepting stricter border controls and moderating rhetoric around ICE and law enforcement, aligning somewhat with President Trump's positions but continuing to frame themselves as the more judicious party. This strategic pivot signals an attempt to distance themselves from far-left activists and appeal to middle-of-the-road voters.
The Pete Hegseth Narco-Strike Controversy
Ben Shapiro focuses extensively on the allegations published by The Washington Post that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth authorized a "kill everyone" order during a September 2nd strike on a Venezuelan narco-trafficking boat, including targeting survivors clinging to wreckage in the water. Shapiro scrutinizes the purported legal implications under the 1949 Geneva Conventions and U.S. war crimes statutes, which prohibit killing individuals who are no longer participating in hostilities or are incapacitated.
However, subsequent reporting and official statements cast doubt on the original claims. The White House defends the strikes by emphasizing that Admiral Frank Mitch Bradley acted legally under a general lethal force authorization granted by Hegseth. Multiple anonymous officials reveal that while Hegseth ordered the destruction of the boat and those aboard, the directive did not specifically sanction killing survivors after the initial strike. Trump himself expressed that he did not want a second strike targeting people in the water.
Further clarifications indicate that the initial strike was directed at the boat and known combatants, but follow-up strikes killing survivors may have been authorized solely by Admiral Bradley without new explicit orders from Hegseth. Shapiro suggests the narrative was inflated to lend political support to Democrats' claims of illicit conduct, framing Hegseth as reckless or unfit. Senator Mark Kelly has used the controversy to elevate his profile, criticizing Hegseth publicly and portraying himself as a more responsible, moderate military veteran alternative.
Senator Mark Kelly's Position and Presidential Prospects
Mark Kelly, the Arizona senator and former astronaut, is spotlighted as a potential moderate Democratic figure for the 2028 presidential race. Although betting markets and polling show Gavin Newsom leading comfortably and Kelly sitting low at around 2%, Shapiro argues that Kelly is making quiet moves to position himself as a centrist alternative to the party's left-wing. Kelly leverages his military background and centrist stances to appeal to voters who might be alienated by more radical Democrats. His active involvement in criticizing Hegseth on the narco-strike issue is interpreted as an attempt to boost his name recognition and showcase leadership qualities fitting a presidential candidate.
Kelly's moderate image contrasts with some other Democrats who continue pushing progressive agendas. Yet, Kelly's voting record aligns closely with Biden's policies, meaning his moderation is more about presentation than dramatic policy shifts.
Tennessee's 7th Congressional District Special Election
The episode highlights the surprisingly close race in Tennessee's heavily Republican 7th Congressional District, where GOP nominee Matt Vaneps faces Democrat Afton Bane, a self-described socialist and advocate for progressive policies including transgender rights and opposition to pro-life measures. Despite the Republican incumbent previously winning by a 20-point margin, poll numbers show a neck-and-neck contest, causing alarm among Republicans.
Matt Vaneps, a West Point graduate and combat veteran, appears on the program to emphasize his conservative credentials and distance himself starkly from his opponent's far-left platform, describing support for law enforcement and economic issues as central to his campaign. Democrats have heavily invested in this race, bringing in progressive stars like AOC and national figures to campaign for Bane, exploiting special election dynamics and low turnouts post-Thanksgiving.
Republicans view holding this seat as critical. Losing such a secure seat would signal vulnerability nationally and could forecast significant GOP losses in the 2026 midterms.
The Pardon of Former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernandez
Shapiro critiques President Trump's recent consideration of pardoning Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former Honduran president convicted of extensive drug trafficking and weapons charges in a U.S. federal court. Hernandez was sentenced to 45 years for his role in a drug conspiracy spanning decades that cemented Honduras as a hub for narcotics imports into the United States.
Shapiro expresses confusion and disapproval over the pardon possibility, emphasizing the gravity of Hernandez's crimes and the damage caused by his actions. The pardon campaign, partly driven by controversial political figures like Roger Stone, casts Hernandez as a victim of political persecution, although Shapiro stresses that political opposition and guilt for serious crimes are not mutually exclusive. The pardon move is framed as inconsistent with the administration's broader "war on narco-terrorism" and undermines the message of accountability.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Fraud Investigations
Another investigation spotlighted is ongoing scrutiny into Minnesota Governor Tim Walz's alleged failure to prevent massive fraud within a pandemic food aid program, particularly involving Somali immigrant communities. Shapiro notes bipartisan concerns as the House Oversight Committee and Treasury Department probe the issue following whistleblower reports of fraud and taxpayer money being funneled partially to terrorist groups like al-Shabaab.
This scandal damages Walz's political stature and raises questions about governance and oversight, especially after Walz was briefly considered a potential vice presidential candidate.
National Guard Shooting Incident and Immigration Debate
The shooting of two National Guard members in Washington D.C. by an Afghan refugee with alleged terrorist ties rekindles debates on immigration policies and national security. The shooter was reportedly admitted into the U.S. through a CIA program but was radicalized post-arrival. The White House calls for strengthened deportation policies and stricter vetting, aligning with Trump administration's immigration criticisms.
Shapiro underscores the challenges of mass migration from unstable countries, the limits of vetting processes, and the difficulty of assimilating migrants with differing values. He notes that immigration remains a unifying issue within the Republican coalition as Democrats generally favor more open policies.
Republican Party's Internal Divides and Future Challenges
Drawing on a Manhattan Institute survey, Shapiro discusses evolving dynamics within the Republican Party, dividing between "core" Republicans—long-time GOP loyalists—and "new entrant" Republicans, many of whom supported Trump after previously voting Democrat. Differences emerge on taxation and government spending, with newer Republicans more open to higher taxes and greater government roles.
Despite some policy gaps, illegal immigration remains a cohesive factor binding the party. Shapiro warns that as key Trump-era issues like border security become less urgent due to enforcement successes, Republicans must redefine their platform to maintain voter unity. The question remains whether older traditionalist conservatives or newer moderate entrants will shape the party's future.
Economic Concerns and International Market Pressures
Shapiro touches on recent economic developments, focusing on rising government bond yields in Japan signaling possible interest rate hikes that might cause capital outflows from U.S. markets to Japan. This financial movement creates volatility and uncertainty in the global economy, which has been teetering on a knife-edge.
Stock markets in the U.S. showed declines amid this backdrop. Shapiro notes investors' confusion over economic direction, especially with Europe's ongoing economic challenges related to green energy policies, making investment decisions more precarious.
Guest Interview with Matt Vaneps
Concluding the episode is an interview with Matt Vaneps, Republican candidate in Tennessee's 7th District. Vaneps emphasizes his military service, conservative values, and opposition to his far-left opponent's policies on policing, taxation, and social issues. He highlights coalitions of local leaders, law enforcement support, and veteran communities backing his candidacy. Vaneps expresses confidence in winning decisively despite Democratic efforts and describes the broader stakes this race carries for both parties going into the midterms.