DEBATE DAY IS HERE

Added: Jun 28, 2024

Polling Data and Biden's Challenges

Shapiro cites several recent polls showing Trump with a lead over Biden. A New York Times/Siena poll has Trump up 48-44 among likely voters, his largest lead in that poll in months. A Quinnipiac poll shows Trump at 49% and Biden at 45% among registered voters. Shapiro notes that Trump is performing surprisingly well with minority voters in these polls, potentially winning 30% of the black vote and running even with Biden among Hispanic voters. He argues these numbers are disastrous for Biden heading into the debate.

Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout

The podcast discusses how voter enthusiasm and likely turnout could impact the election. Shapiro points out that younger voters and racial minorities - key Democratic constituencies - are showing lower enthusiasm for voting compared to older and white voters who tend to favor Trump. He argues that if turnout patterns resemble a more typical election rather than the unusually high turnout of 2020, it would benefit Trump significantly.

Biden's Debate Strategy and Challenges

Shapiro speculates on Biden's debate strategy, suggesting he needs to come across as energetic and sharp to counter concerns about his age and mental acuity. However, Shapiro doubts Biden can maintain high energy for the full 90-minute debate. He argues Biden's team likely wants to prevent moments where Trump can highlight Biden's verbal stumbles or confusion.

Trump's Debate Strategy

For Trump, Shapiro recommends letting Biden talk at length, believing Biden is likely to make mistakes or show signs of cognitive decline if given enough time. He suggests Trump should avoid appearing volatile or unstable, as that plays into Biden's narrative about Trump. Shapiro argues Trump should focus on policy critiques of Biden's record rather than personal attacks.

Media Spin and Expectations

The podcast notes that some media figures are already trying to set expectations for Biden's performance, suggesting the debate rules unfairly favor Trump. Shapiro sees this as a sign that Biden's team is worried about his debate performance. He predicts the debate moderators may ask tougher questions of Biden than some expect, as they won't want to be seen as biased.

Key Debate Topics

Shapiro outlines several key topics he expects to come up in the debate:

Economy and Inflation: He argues Biden's record on inflation and the economy is weak, and Trump should press him on this.

Immigration: Shapiro says this is Biden's worst issue and Trump should highlight specific crimes committed by illegal immigrants who entered under Biden's policies.

Foreign Policy: Shapiro contends Biden's foreign policy has been weak and made the world more dangerous. He suggests Trump emphasize his stronger approach to adversaries like China and Iran.

Potential Global Consequences

Shapiro speculates that if Trump performs well in the debate and extends his polling lead, it could lead to increased aggression from America's adversaries in the short term. He argues countries like China, Russia, and Iran may try to take aggressive actions while Biden is still in office if they believe Trump is likely to win in 2024. Shapiro sees this as a major risk in the coming months if Biden's chances continue to decline.

Supreme Court Decisions

The podcast then shifts to discussing two recent Supreme Court decisions that Shapiro sees as disappointing for conservatives:

Abortion in Emergency Rooms: A leaked draft opinion suggests the court will allow emergency abortions to be performed in Idaho despite the state's near-total ban. Shapiro sees this as the court siding with the Biden administration's more permissive interpretation of federal law over state restrictions.

Social Media Content Moderation: The court declined to hear a case alleging the Biden administration unlawfully pressured social media companies to remove content. Shapiro strongly criticizes this decision, agreeing with Justice Alito's dissent that it allows dangerous government coercion of private companies to suppress speech.

Shapiro argues these decisions show the Supreme Court is not as consistently conservative as Democrats often claim. He expresses particular frustration with the social media case, seeing it as the court abdicating its duty to protect free speech from government interference.

Conclusion

Shapiro concludes by emphasizing the high stakes of the upcoming debate and election. He sees Biden as vulnerable on multiple fronts and needing a strong debate performance to change the trajectory of the race. However, he also warns that a likely Trump victory could lead to increased global instability in the short term as adversaries try to act before a more hawkish administration takes office. The podcast underscores the debate as a potential turning point in the 2024 election with far-reaching consequences.