What Billionaire Tech CEOs Get Wrong About The Future, with Adam Becker

In this engaging conversation, Neil deGrasse Tyson and Adam Becker delve into the intersection of science fiction, technological ambition, and the visions of billionaire tech CEOs. With a critical eye on the promises and pitfalls of space colonization, artificial general intelligence (AGI), transhumanism, and the singularity, Becker offers a physicist's perspective enriched with philosophical insights. They unpack how science fiction has long served as both a warning and a blueprint, why many of these visions stumble over practical realities, and the consequences of vast wealth and power shaping humanity's future.

Science Fiction as Warning

The discussion opens by highlighting how science fiction, from Fritz Lang's Metropolis to modern cyberpunk classics like Neuromancer, often carries implicit warnings wrapped in speculative storytelling. Science fiction uses imaginative futures to illuminate present-day social, political, and technological issues, often portraying dystopian outcomes to caution society. Becker points out that while some tech billionaires draw inspiration from sci-fi, they often misread or simplistically adopt these narratives, missing the underlying critiques about wealth, power concentration, and human nature. Neil introduces the "torment nexus" concept from Becker's book—an allegory for technologies that exacerbate inequality and entrench elite control, echoing cyberpunk warnings of elite enclaves isolated from societal consequences.

The Reality of Mars Colonization

A predominant tech billionaire dream is Mars colonization. Adam Becker firmly asserts that sending humans to Mars by 2050—and especially establishing a self-sustaining colony—is far more challenging and unlikely than enthusiasts suggest. The technological and physiological hurdles, including radiation exposure, life support, and the sheer difficulty of transportation logistics, remain formidable. He stresses how Mars lacks Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, exposing inhabitants to unsafe radiation levels that would cause long-term health issues like cancer. Moreover, the communication delay to Mars makes real-time interaction impossible, and return missions could take years depending on launch windows. While rockets can get boots on Mars, long-term survival, food production, and habitat construction confront toxic soil and environmental obstacles. Becker debunks popular conceptions fueled by movies like The Martian, noting that real science complicates such scenarios.

Skepticism About Functional Immortality and the Singularity

The conversation turns to transhumanism and the idea of overcoming mortality, especially through concepts like the technological singularity where AI surpasses human intelligence to grant near-immortality. Becker approaches this critically from a physicist-philosopher lens, explaining that intelligence is not a single quantifiable trait that can simply be ramped up. He argues that the singularity notion is flawed, based on unrealistic extrapolations of Moore's law and a misunderstanding of exponential technological growth. Important constraints like energy consumption and physical limits to miniaturization suggest these trends cannot continue indefinitely. The popular idea that superintelligent AI will emerge within a few years to solve all human problems is described as speculative hype rather than grounded science. Borealis points out that while biotechnological advances might extend health spans, the leap to uploading consciousness or achieving true immortality remains pure science fiction, currently devoid of physical or technological plausibility.

Transhumanism and Technological Progress

Becker acknowledges that humans have always extended their biological limits through technology—from vaccines to nutrition—arguing we might already be 'transhuman' compared to previous centuries. However, he questions whether this trend can continue indefinitely or if it will plateau due to fundamental biological and physical constraints. Technologies promised by tech elites, like brain augmentation or AI-assisted immortality, mostly remain speculative and slow to materialize. The focus shifts to practical and ethical questions regarding who might benefit from these developments, with Becker highlighting that access to such enhancements would likely be limited to a wealthy few, exacerbating social divides.

The Role and Reality of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Diving deeper into AI, Becker distinguishes current task-specific AI from the futuristic concept of AGI—an AI capable of performing any intellectual task a human can do, and more. Present-day AI systems still require extensive human oversight and are far from autonomous general intelligence. The vision that AGI will rapidly self-improve and solve humanity's crises is met with skepticism. Furthermore, the energy demands and physical infrastructure required for such superintelligence pose major challenges. Becker critiques tech CEOs' claims that AGI can tackle complex problems like climate change by emphasizing that knowledge of solutions already exists; the fundamental barriers lie in human behavior, politics, and economic interests, not intelligence per se.

The Influence of Wealth, Power, and Hubris

A recurring theme is the outsized influence of ultra-wealthy tech CEOs and investors who, according to Becker, mistake financial success for intellectual omniscience. Wealth enables them to push forward grand visions—with significant government subsidies and contracts—while often lacking the social awareness or humility to appreciate human complexities. The conversation suggests many tech leaders operate from a place of isolation, prioritizing technological utopias like space colonization or AI dominion over pressing Earth-bound problems like inequality and environmental degradation. Becker stresses that this hubris blinds them to the limits of their control, echoing the downfall of historical dictators who overestimated their power.

Limitations of Exponential Growth and Moore's Law

Becker refutes the assumption that technological advancement will continue accelerating indefinitely. Moore's law, the expectation of exponential doubling in computing power, has already plateaued due to physical constraints like transistor size. Increasing computational power now requires new architectures, bigger chips, or novel technologies such as quantum computing, all of which come with their own challenges. The idea that AI or computational capacity will "explode" on its own lacks grounding. Rather than linear exponential growth, technological progress often encounters diminishing returns and resource limitations.

Misreading Science Fiction and Its Cultural Impact

The discussion reflects on how tech leaders sometimes misinterpret science fiction as literal prophecy rather than allegory. While franchises like Star Trek embody utopian ideals and social critique, others like Blade Runner warn of dystopian futures driven by class divides and corporate control. Becker points out that science fiction primarily uses speculative settings to explore contemporary issues, often cloaking uncomfortable truths in metaphor. This nuanced reading is often lost on those eager to commercialize sci-fi concepts without grasping their critical implications.

The Importance of Wisdom and Social Responsibility

Final reflections emphasize that scientific ingenuity alone is insufficient to guarantee a positive future. True progress depends on coupling technical advances with wisdom, ethical stewardship, and a collective will to address social inequalities. Becker advocates for societal guardrails—like limiting extreme wealth concentration—to prevent power abuses that threaten democracy and equitable access to technology. The pursuit of knowledge and innovation should be balanced with humility and responsibility, ensuring that human values, not just technical possibilities, shape what lies ahead.