Rob Luna – What’s Actually Coming for the Economy in 2026 | SRS #267

In this podcast episode, Rob Luna joins Sean Ryan to dive deep into the economic and financial landscape expected in 2026. They explore a broad range of topics, from navigating taxes and wealth management to the evolving challenges of American entrepreneurship. Key discussions cover the new trends in mortgages, tariffs, child savings plans, the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on jobs and business, and insights on investing in gold, crypto, and real estate. Throughout the conversation, Rob shares his extensive expertise and experience, offering practical advice for business owners and everyday Americans alike.

Valtry Wealth Management and Tax Strategy

Rob Luna introduces Valtry, his new wealth management firm launched last year, which integrates tax planning, financial strategy, and business consulting all under one roof. Unlike traditional CPA firms that often work reactively and in silos, Valtry proactively collaborates across disciplines to optimize tax savings and wealth growth. Rob emphasizes the frustration many entrepreneurs feel around taxes, highlighting that typical CPA approaches often fail in thorough planning. Valtry's approach helps clients legally minimize taxes from the start of the year, enabling business growth rather than unnecessarily overpaying the government. Their integrated model has already saved clients hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes during its first year of operation. Rob frames this not only as wealth preservation but as a critical lever to reposition funds back into families and businesses.

The State and Future of the American Dream

The hosts discuss the current perception of the American dream's viability. Sean shares personal testimony about the entrepreneurial spirit shaping his fence business friend and immigrant labor filling essential trades. Rob agrees but stresses the erosion of certain values—motivation, responsibility, and hard work—threaten that dream. He recalls his grandfather's immigrant story, brick by brick building a future with perseverance and self-reliance. The conversation turns to the consequences of government "band-aids" like 50-year mortgages and other softening policies, which Rob argues may ultimately undermine the culture of personal accountability that built America. The reality of workforce migration—with people leaving cities like New York—reflects cultural shifts rather than just economic changes, he asserts, connecting it to political and social dynamics influencing workforce values and opportunity distribution.

The 50-Year Mortgage: Pros and Cons

Sean and Rob examine this controversial mortgage option. Sean initially sees the extended term as positive since it significantly lowers monthly payments, making homeownership more attainable for younger generations who tend to move every 10 years or less. Rob agrees the human element—homeownership's emotional and familial security value—is important but notes the financial math is less favorable than it appears. The payment reduction is modest ($3,000 to $2,650 monthly on a $500,000 house at 6% interest), and the extended timeline substantially increases total interest paid, often by 50%. Additionally, early years build little equity, impacting wealth accumulation and future mobility. Rob advocates for discipline in budgeting the slightly higher payments for financial sustainability rather than diluting debt over decades, reinforcing the idea that choice and mindset are ultimately decisive factors in homeownership affordability.

Tariffs and Supply Chain Resilience

The discussion moves to tariffs, a heated political topic. Rob positions himself as a free-market capitalist generally opposed to tariffs but acknowledges their role in exposing vulnerabilities in U.S. supply chains, especially reliance on China. He recounts stories from clients impacted by supply delays and how they adapted by diversifying sourcing and raising prices while maintaining net margins. From a national security perspective, tariffs serve to force America into strengthening its domestic manufacturing and supply capabilities. Rob notes consequential investments like the Taiwan semiconductor facility expansion in Arizona. While tariffs have short-term costs and complications, he believes long-term structural benefits—such as jobs returning and economic diversification—are essential to sustain American standards of living amid advancing technologies like AI.

The New Child Savings Plan

Rob introduces a government initiative that grants $1,000 in tax-free funds to children born in 2025, placed into a dedicated savings account invested in portfolios like the S&P 500. Though the amount is modest, it encourages early investment and compound growth, potentially netting nearly a million dollars by age 25 with additional parental contributions. This grassroots approach to wealth building counters socialism critiques by returning some tax dollars directly to families rather than broad government spending. Rob views this program as a positive foundation that can be expanded through further education and additional financial planning, especially benefiting business owners investing in their children's futures.

Artificial Intelligence and the Workforce

This segment addresses the seismic impact of AI on jobs, businesses, and economic structures. Rob stresses that AI is already reshaping industries, favoring individuals and companies who adapt and leverage its capabilities. Employees with entrepreneurial mindsets, specialized skills, and the ability to integrate AI tools will thrive, while complacency and average performance lead to obsolescence. He predicts significant middle-class job losses as automation and AI supplant routine middle management and nine-to-five roles. Labor is the largest expense for most businesses, and automation promises leaner, more profitable organizations delivering better customer experiences. However, the social consequences are sobering: potential for widespread unemployment and increased reliance on government assistance. Rob fears the erosion of the middle class and warns of political exploitation of disenfranchised populations, which could accelerate socialism and threaten long-term economic competitiveness.

Business Growth and Motivating Employees

Sean and Rob explore how entrepreneurs can motivate and retain talented staff in today's challenging labor market. Rob insists that average or unmotivated employees are costly and offers an approach where businesses focus on hiring "all-star" performers supported by strong, transparent processes and technology. Incentive structures align individual performance with company goals, rewarding both individual contributions and collective achievements. Properly designed compensation systems can energize teams, encourage continuous improvement, and curb high turnover. Rob highlights Sean's business as a case study in how clear expectations and bonus structures rapidly elevate employee engagement. Ultimately, retaining top talent requires ongoing investment, cultural alignment, and leadership committed to employee success.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver

Rob discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices, with gold hitting around $4,200 and silver about $60 per ounce. Gold's enduring role as an inflation hedge and safe haven during market uncertainty continues to attract investors amid worries about national debt, tariffs, and economic stability. Silver's additional industrial applications, especially related to AI technology, have amplified its gains. Rob advises investors to maintain a 5-10% portfolio allocation in precious metals for diversification, favoring physical gold and silver bars or coins over ETFs for intrinsic value. He cautions against timing markets too aggressively, noting gold typically performs best over long horizons and corrects after strong rallies. Cryptocurrency is contrasted sharply—though it gains enthusiasm, Rob views it as highly speculative, volatile, and lacking intrinsic utility or valuation clarity.

Cryptocurrency Skepticism

Rob expresses strong skepticism about cryptocurrency as a mainstream investment or dollar substitute. He highlights regulatory challenges, systemic risks, and lack of intrinsic value compared to traditional assets like gold or real estate. Despite crypto's early dramatic gains, recent years have seen significant declines and volatility. He points out the irony of major financial institutions like Bank of America and BlackRock embracing Bitcoin products after previously dismissing the industry. Rob warns that institutional adoption could introduce systemic risks similar to the 2008 housing crisis and that ordinary investors may ultimately bear the consequences. While acknowledging crypto's technological potential, he recommends limiting exposure to a small, speculative portion of a diversified portfolio, if any.

Real Estate Market Trends

The real estate market since 2020 has been unpredictable, with marked geographic disparities driven by political, social, and economic shifts. Population migrations from expensive, high-tax states like California and New York to more affordable, value-driven markets such as Tennessee, Texas, and Florida underpin rising property values in these growth regions. Rob contrasts this with the decline in major urban centers suffering from economic and cultural deterioration. He advises investors to "skate to where the puck is going," focusing on markets aligned with demographic trends, safety, and favorable values. Real estate remains attractive due to tax advantages, including recently reinstated bonus depreciation and opportunity zone investments, which incentivize capital deployment into economically distressed areas while delivering tax benefits and potential tax-free growth for investors willing to hold long-term.

Managing the National Debt and Its Implications

Rob outlines the looming challenge posed by the U.S. national debt approaching $40 trillion, much of it short-term, with rising interest costs outpacing even defense spending. Persistently large budget deficits and elevated debt servicing threaten fiscal sustainability. Potential consequences include credit rating downgrades, higher borrowing costs, a weakened dollar reserve status, and pressures to raise taxes—especially on the middle class, which could stifle economic growth and competitiveness. Social programs like Social Security face near insolvency, intensifying the urgency for reform. Rob emphasizes the difficulty and political unpopularity of necessary fiscal adjustments, underscoring that growth alone cannot realistically resolve the issue. The situation calls for tough decisions around spending cuts, entitlement reform, and tax policy.

Tax Strategies and Opportunities

For business owners and investors, Rob details impactful tax strategies available in the current environment. Restarted 100% bonus depreciation allows accelerated write-offs on new real estate investments, lowering taxable income and making property acquisition more attractive. Opportunity zone funds enable deferral and potential elimination of capital gains taxes by reinvesting profits into designated economically challenged communities for periods of up to ten years. Qualified small business stock (Section 1202) structures permit certain CC corporations to exclude up to $15 million in gains from federal taxes after five years of ownership—an enormous incentive for founders and early investors of growing enterprises. Additionally, restored R&D tax credits reward companies investing in innovation, product development, and process improvements, offsetting income or payroll taxes dollar-for-dollar. Rob stresses the importance of proactive tax planning and structuring investments early to maximize these benefits.

Political and Cultural Underpinnings

Throughout the discussion, Rob and Sean repeatedly highlight the strong connection between politics, cultural values, and economic realities. They emphasize that the success or failure of the American economy is deeply intertwined with societal attitudes toward work ethic, responsibility, and governance. They voice concern over increasing political polarization, the erosion of traditional values, and policies that may inadvertently reward mediocrity or disincentivize effort. Both stress the importance of individual agency—rejecting dependency on government handouts and focusing on personal and community resilience. They underscore the role of informed political engagement, value-based voting, and grassroots efforts to uphold the principles that historically fueled American prosperity.