Why Is Everyone Having Fewer Children? - Lyman Stone

Added: Sep 6, 2024

Fertility Rates Over the Last Few Years

In recent years, fertility rates in the United States have seen a significant decline, mirroring trends observed globally. In 2007, the average number of children per woman was approximately 2.1, which is considered the replacement level. However, this figure has dropped to around 1.6 today, indicating a shortfall of about half a child per woman. This decline raises questions about the implications for society, particularly as it suggests that many women are not having the number of children they would have had if birth rates had remained stable. The conversation around fertility rates is not just about numbers; it reflects deeper societal changes and individual choices.

Lessons We Can Take From the 1900s

Looking back at the 1900s, we can glean valuable insights into fertility trends. Historically, women had many more children, often due to high mortality rates among infants and mothers. In the early 1800s, the average number of children per woman was around six, but this figure is misleading because many women did not survive to the end of their reproductive years. The decline in fertility rates throughout the 20th century can largely be attributed to improvements in child survival rates and a shift in societal norms regarding family size. As people became more confident that their children would survive, they began to have fewer children, targeting a stable number of surviving offspring rather than simply increasing the number of births.

The Impact of Finances on Having Kids

Financial considerations play a crucial role in family planning today. Many individuals and couples express concerns about their ability to afford children, citing rising living costs, housing prices, and economic uncertainty. Surveys indicate that while people may desire an average of 2.3 children, their intentions often fall short, with actual fertility rates at 1.6. This discrepancy highlights a significant gap between what people want and what they feel they can realistically achieve. The financial burden of raising children, combined with the pressures of modern living, contributes to the decision to delay or forgo parenthood altogether.

Interestingly, while there is a rise in the number of individuals expressing a desire for childlessness, this is offset by a corresponding desire for larger families among others. The overall trend indicates a polarized landscape of fertility preferences, with some individuals aiming for zero children while others aspire to have three or more.

Our Modern Obsession With Parenting

In contemporary society, there is a growing obsession with parenting, characterized by heightened expectations and standards. The concept of "parenting" has become a focal point in discussions about child-rearing, with parents feeling the pressure to provide the best for their children. This cultural shift has led to an increase in anxiety and uncertainty about parenting, which may deter some individuals from having children. The rise of parenting as a topic of concern in literature and media reflects a broader societal preoccupation with the responsibilities and challenges of raising children, further complicating the decision to start a family.

New Research on Universal Basic Income

Recent studies on Universal Basic Income (UBI) have sparked discussions about its potential impact on fertility rates. Initial findings suggest that while UBI can provide financial relief, it may not significantly improve long-term economic stability for recipients. In pilot programs, recipients of UBI reported increased spending but did not show substantial improvements in savings or wealth accumulation. This raises questions about the effectiveness of UBI as a solution for alleviating financial concerns related to child-rearing. The research indicates that while UBI may temporarily relieve stress, it does not address the underlying issues that contribute to declining fertility rates.

Why Stone Remains Positive

Despite the challenges posed by declining fertility rates, Stone maintains a positive outlook. He emphasizes that the primary concern should be ensuring that individuals can achieve their desired family size. He argues that the decline in fertility is not necessarily indicative of a crisis but rather a reflection of changing societal norms and expectations. He believes that if people can overcome psychological barriers and societal pressures, they will find fulfillment in parenthood. He advocates for policies that support families in achieving their goals, rather than framing the situation as a demographic disaster.

Does Marriage Have an Impact on Fertility?

Marriage plays a significant role in fertility rates, with married individuals generally having higher birth rates than their unmarried counterparts. The decline in marriage rates, particularly among younger generations, has contributed to the overall decrease in fertility. While the desire for marriage remains stable, with about 90% of people expressing a wish to marry, the age at which people marry has been rising. This delay in marriage often correlates with a decrease in the number of children people have, as those who marry later may have fewer opportunities to start families.

Shifting Attitudes Towards Contraception

Attitudes towards contraception have evolved, with a growing awareness of its implications for fertility. While contraception is widely accepted and used, there are concerns about its long-term effects on women's health and fertility. Research indicates that hormonal birth control can increase the time it takes to conceive after discontinuation, although it does not appear to have lasting effects on overall fertility. The conversation around contraception is complex, as it intersects with broader discussions about women's health, autonomy, and societal expectations regarding family size.

Political Tension in Mate Selection

Political polarization has increasingly influenced mate selection, with individuals often seeking partners who share similar political beliefs. This trend reflects a broader societal divide, where political affiliation can impact personal relationships and family planning. The fertility rates among different political groups also vary, with conservative individuals generally having more children than their liberal counterparts. This dynamic raises questions about the long-term implications of political beliefs on family size and societal demographics.

The Future of Western Birth Rates

Looking ahead, the future of Western birth rates appears uncertain. Stone predicts that fertility rates may continue to decline, potentially bottoming out between 0.4 and 1.3. This decline could be driven by various factors, including economic conditions, societal norms, and individual choices. While some subgroups may maintain higher fertility rates, the overall trend suggests a shift towards smaller families. Stone emphasizes that the challenges posed by low fertility are not insurmountable, and with the right support and cultural shifts, society can adapt to these changes.

What Stone is Studying Next

Currently, Stone is focusing on housing as a critical factor influencing family planning. He aims to explore how housing affordability and accessibility impact young people's decisions to have children. By examining the relationship between housing and family life, he hopes to identify strategies that can help alleviate some of the barriers to parenthood that young people face today.

Where to Find Stone

For those interested in following Stone's work and insights, he is active on Twitter under the handle @lymanstoneky. Additionally, he is the director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, where he contributes to research and discussions surrounding family dynamics and fertility trends. His work aims to promote a better understanding of the factors influencing family planning and to advocate for policies that support families in achieving their goals.