John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401

Added: Nov 17, 2023

Mearsheimer explains that nations in relation to each other are in a state of anarchy, meaning there is no higher authority above states. In an anarchic world, states have no choice but to compete for power to ensure their survival. He distinguishes between structural realists and human nature realists, with Mearsheimer aligning himself with the former. He believes that the structure of the system, rather than human nature, drives competition and war.

Mearsheimer discusses the differences between realism and liberalism in international relations theory. Realists believe that power matters, states compete for power, and war is an instrument of statecraft. On the other hand, liberals have a more idealistic view of the world, with theories such as democratic peace theory, economic interdependence theory, and liberal institutionalism. Mearsheimer argues against these liberal theories, stating that survival always trumps prosperity and that economic interdependence and institutions cannot prevent war in the face of security concerns.

The conversation delves into the concept of offensive realism, which Mearsheimer subscribes to, and the distinction between offensive and defensive realism. He explains that offensive realists believe that states look for opportunities to gain more power, while defensive realists focus on maintaining their existing power. Mearsheimer also addresses the role of military might in international politics, emphasizing the importance of military capabilities for survival in an anarchic system.

The discussion turns to historical events, such as the rise of Nazi Germany and the factors that led to World War II. Mearsheimer argues that structural considerations were the principal factor driving Hitler's decisions, with resentment and a will to power also playing a role. He highlights the importance of understanding the multidimensional nature of history and the complexities of human psychology in the context of international politics.

Mearsheimer also addresses the Soviet Union's role in World War II, emphasizing the genocidal nature of the conflict and the Soviet soldiers' fierce determination to fight against a murderous adversary. He discusses the significance of the Holocaust and the potential consequences of Hitler's conquest of the Soviet Union on a much grander scale.

Mearsheimer continues by discussing the Israel-Palestine conflict, highlighting the historical context and the challenges of finding a peaceful resolution. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the perspectives of both sides and the need for empathy in order to achieve a lasting peace.

Moving on to the war in Ukraine, Mearsheimer challenges the conventional wisdom that portrays Vladimir Putin as an imperialist seeking to conquer all of Ukraine. He argues that there is no evidence to support this claim and suggests that NATO expansion into Ukraine was the principal cause of the war. He explains that Russia sees NATO as a threat to its security and emphasizes the need for a neutral Ukraine to prevent further conflict.

Mearsheimer criticizes the US's involvement in Ukraine and its failure to negotiate a peaceful resolution. He believes that the US should have worked to shut down the conflict early on and that the current situation is a result of missed opportunities for diplomacy.

He also discusses the potential use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and the manipulation of risk strategy in a "mad world" scenario. He also expresses concerns about the potential escalation and unintended consequences of nuclear use, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war.

Mearsheimer also discusses the role of leadership in international relations, highlighting the importance of trust and the potential for individual leaders to counteract structural forces. He suggests that direct communication between leaders, such as Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, could potentially lead to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

In addition, Mearsheimer addresses the possibility of removing Putin from power as a means of ending the war in Ukraine. He argues that Putin's replacement is likely to be more hawkish and less willing to trust the West, making it unlikely to lead to a peaceful resolution.

Throughout the conversation, Mearsheimer emphasizes the need for a realistic and pragmatic approach to international relations, focusing on the security concerns of all parties involved. He also highlights the importance of understanding historical context and the complexities of geopolitical dynamics in order to address conflicts and prevent future wars.

The conversation shifts to China, where Mearsheimer discusses the implications of China's rise as a global power and its impact on the international order. He emphasizes the need for the United States to adopt a realist approach in dealing with China and to prioritize its own national interests in the face of growing competition.

Mearsheimer acknowledges the strategic competition between the US and China and the potential for conflict. He emphasizes the importance of containing China and preventing its domination of Asia, particularly in relation to Taiwan. Mearsheimer argues that the US must deter China from invading Taiwan while avoiding a direct military confrontation.

Regarding NATO, Mearsheimer expresses skepticism about the expansion of NATO and its potential impact on stability in Europe. He argues that the push to bring Ukraine into NATO has contributed to the destruction of Ukraine and highlights the need for stability in Europe as a net positive for all involved.

The discussion then turns to the Israel Lobby, a topic that Mearsheimer has written about extensively. He explains the influence of the Israel Lobby in shaping US policy in the Middle East and its impact on the pursuit of a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. He emphasizes the need to distinguish between the interests of the lobby and the broader national interests of the United States.

Mearsheimer also addresses the conflation of anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism, arguing that criticism of Israel and the Zionist project should not automatically be equated with anti-Semitism. He highlights the rich tradition of anti-Zionism in the American context and the need to engage in meaningful discourse on these complex issues.

Throughout the conversation, Mearsheimer emphasizes the importance of empathy and humility in navigating complex geopolitical issues. He encourages individuals to pursue careers that align with their interests and to approach life with a healthy balance of confidence and humility.